McNulty Ramp-Up Curves: An Update
摘要
In 1998, Terry McNulty presented an SME paper that surveyed 41 processing plant case histories and identified the dominant causes of success and failure. That survey resulted in creation of four curves, graphically portraying the approximate rates of achievement of design capacity over time for projects that ranged from very successful to marginal to unsuccessful. Identifiable characteristics of those projects were then tabulated, establishing rough guidelines that could be used in project planning or for prioritization of projects competing for capital. Updates were given at SME 2004 in Denver and at COM 2014 in Vancouver. These so-called “McNulty Curves” have been widely adopted by operating companies and project financing firms for use as a checklist for risk assessment. We are offering an update based on responses to questionnaires sent in early-2024 to mining and mineral processing companies around the globe and to consulting metallurgists and EPCM project managers. Adding new case histories and incorporating the advice and suggestions of respondents has shifted the original curves and hopefully improved their usefulness. Also, the specific problems encountered by some projects are discussed in detail, along with recommendations from responders about ensuring success.