Computational Modeling and Regression Analysis for Water Consumption Management
摘要
Water consumption management and demand forecasting are prerequisites for evaluating the cost–benefit of implementing programs and understanding the challenges facing water systems. Forecasting the demand in the distribution networks of an isolated, sparsely populated area is considered one of the basic measures. During the water demand forecasting period, the water use efficiency program or public education plans are implemented to reduce water consumption. The results of this research showed that the forecasts will be more accurate when based on the classification of types of consumption. An implementation methodology is better to forecast the demand based on the supply population. This method will be suitable for networks that have small changes in the texture of the service-receiving population. Networks whose subscribers only include households in the residential sector and have fixed water consumption characteristics. In this method, per capita consumption is calculated. Per capita consumption is multiplied by the projected population. The predicted amount of water is compared with the capacity of the network. In this way, the surplus or shortage of predicted water is determined. The training process in the isolation area, showed that Consumption per capita is under the direct influence of General education. In the regression analysis, the fluid Consumption per capita (liters per day) as a dependent variable and the General education (h) as an independent variable had a P-value of 0.955.