Business Analysis and Prognosis Regarding the Shared Autonomous Vehicle Market in Germany
摘要
Driven by the current advancements in autonomous driving (AD) technology, operations of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) are increasingly moved from closed test sites to public roads worldwide. Since the market potential of SAV services in Germany remains largely unexplored, this chapter aims to provide a holistic business analysis and prognosis of the German SAV market. To adequately capture the operational complexity of future SAV fleets, a simulation-based approach is used. The simulation model is created utilizing proprietary operational performance and cost data of actual shared vehicle services and pilots in Germany. Three market demand scenarios are simulated and combined with a detailed cost scenario for the year 2035. Results indicate improved operational efficiency indicators for SAV fleets compared to non-autonomous fleets. However, we also found that cost structures of SAV fleets may be highly underestimated in previous studies, resulting in a per VKM cost range of 0.48–0.50 EUR. While customer price levels are significantly lower than the current cost of using ride-hailing services, they may not be low enough to convince a considerable number of passengers to switch from their private cars to SAV services. The results underscore the importance of collaborative efforts between policymakers, fleet operators and manufacturers to harness the benefits of SAV fleets.