Due to a steep decline in fertility since 2007, births in the United States have fallen by nearly 17%. As a consequence, higher education institutions serving traditional-aged students can expect to grapple with shrinking prospective student pools from 2026 into the 2040s. Given fertility and migration patterns, demographic weakness is expected to be particularly evident in the Midwest and Northeast. After documenting these stressors, the chapter discusses higher education’s response through expanded recruitment, greater focus on retention persistence, and (usually as a last resort) retrenchment. Finally, a study of recent closures and mergers offers cautionary lessons. A case study of Iowa Wesleyan’s closure underscores the limitations of strategies that over-rely on recruitment as the industry navigates an era of student scarcity.