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The sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic presented governments, policy makers and health services with an unprecedented challenge of taking real-time decisions that could keep the disease under control with non-pharmaceutical interventions, while at the same time limit as much as possible severe consequences of a very strict lockdown. Mathematical modelling has proved to be a crucial element for informing those decisions. Here we report on the rapid development and application of the Swansea Model, a mathematical model of disease spread in real time, to inform policy decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Wales.

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Real-Time Epidemiological Modelling During the COVID-19 Emergency in Wales

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Mike B. Gravenor,
  • Mark Dawson,
  • Ed Bennett,
  • Ben Thorpe,
  • Carla White,
  • Alma Rahat,
  • Daniel Archambault,
  • Noemi Picco,
  • Gibin Powathil,
  • Biagio Lucini

摘要

The sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic presented governments, policy makers and health services with an unprecedented challenge of taking real-time decisions that could keep the disease under control with non-pharmaceutical interventions, while at the same time limit as much as possible severe consequences of a very strict lockdown. Mathematical modelling has proved to be a crucial element for informing those decisions. Here we report on the rapid development and application of the Swansea Model, a mathematical model of disease spread in real time, to inform policy decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Wales.