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This paper presents recent operational and research developments at the Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP) Prediction Center of the Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (BKG). The prediction system has been extended in two directions. First, new internally consistent technique-specific and multi-technique EOP products generated at BKG from VLBI, SLR and GNSS Analysis Centers, including a low-latency combined solution, are used as inputs for prediction. Second, the methodology has evolved from purely data-driven SSA+Copula models to a physics-informed framework combining least-squares modelling of effective angular momentum (EAM) with autoregressive residual modelling (LS+AR+EAM@GFZ). The model uses EAM forecasts from GFZ as physical forcing through the Liouville equations and is applied to polar motion, dUT1, and LOD. Hindcast experiments over 720 rolling daily issues with 1–10 day prediction horizons show that the physics-informed approach consistently outperforms the SSA+Copula baseline, with the largest improvements for dUT1. The results demonstrate the value of geophysical excitation information for short-term EOP forecasting and support the development of operational physics-informed prediction services at BKG.

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Operational and Research Developments in Short-Term EOP Prediction at BKG

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  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Sadegh Modiri,
  • Daniela Thaller,
  • Lisa Klemm,
  • Santiago Belda,
  • Sonia Guessoum,
  • Alexander Kehm,
  • Daniel König,
  • Claudia Flohrer

摘要

This paper presents recent operational and research developments at the Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP) Prediction Center of the Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (BKG). The prediction system has been extended in two directions. First, new internally consistent technique-specific and multi-technique EOP products generated at BKG from VLBI, SLR and GNSS Analysis Centers, including a low-latency combined solution, are used as inputs for prediction. Second, the methodology has evolved from purely data-driven SSA+Copula models to a physics-informed framework combining least-squares modelling of effective angular momentum (EAM) with autoregressive residual modelling (LS+AR+EAM@GFZ). The model uses EAM forecasts from GFZ as physical forcing through the Liouville equations and is applied to polar motion, dUT1, and LOD. Hindcast experiments over 720 rolling daily issues with 1–10 day prediction horizons show that the physics-informed approach consistently outperforms the SSA+Copula baseline, with the largest improvements for dUT1. The results demonstrate the value of geophysical excitation information for short-term EOP forecasting and support the development of operational physics-informed prediction services at BKG.