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<p>The inverse base-rate effect (IBRE) is an irrational phenomenon in predictive learning. It occurs when people try to generalize what they have experienced to novel and ambiguous events. This irrational generalization manifests as a preference for rare, unlikely outcomes in the face of ambiguity. At least two formal mathematical models of this irrational preference (EXIT, NNRAS) lead to a counter-intuitive prediction: the effect reduces under concurrent load. We tested this prediction across two experiments (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="13423_2025_2661_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="21" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(N_{1}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>N</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> = 72, <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="13423_2025_2661_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="19" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="37" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(M_{age}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>M</mi> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="italic">age</mi> </mrow> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> = 20.12; <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="13423_2025_2661_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="21" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(N_{2}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>N</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> = 160, <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="13423_2025_2661_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="19" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="37" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(M_{age}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>M</mi> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="italic">age</mi> </mrow> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> = 20.88). We confirm the prediction, but only when participants were under an obvious time constraint. This empirical confirmation is as surprising as the prediction itself—irrationality reduces under increased task demands. Further, our data are more consistent with the NNRAS model than with EXIT, the most prominent model of the IBRE to date.</p>

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Better generalization through distraction? Concurrent load reduces the size of the inverse base-rate effect

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月25日

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  • Lenard Dome,
  • Andy J. Wills

摘要

The inverse base-rate effect (IBRE) is an irrational phenomenon in predictive learning. It occurs when people try to generalize what they have experienced to novel and ambiguous events. This irrational generalization manifests as a preference for rare, unlikely outcomes in the face of ambiguity. At least two formal mathematical models of this irrational preference (EXIT, NNRAS) lead to a counter-intuitive prediction: the effect reduces under concurrent load. We tested this prediction across two experiments ( \(N_{1}\) N 1 = 72, \(M_{age}\) M age = 20.12; \(N_{2}\) N 2 = 160, \(M_{age}\) M age = 20.88). We confirm the prediction, but only when participants were under an obvious time constraint. This empirical confirmation is as surprising as the prediction itself—irrationality reduces under increased task demands. Further, our data are more consistent with the NNRAS model than with EXIT, the most prominent model of the IBRE to date.