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Abstract <p>The paper presents a comparison of the data series on 10-m wind speed for the period September 1–October 30, 2019 for 127 ground-based observation stations on the Baltic Sea coast and daily forecast data from the GFSv15, WRF-ARWv4.0, COSMO-Ru7, and HIRLAM-5 models. During this period, two storm situations were observed (September 15–16 and October 1–2, 2019), which led to the closure of the dam culverts. It is shown that for wind speeds of 4 m/s and more, the accuracy of the wind speed forecast with COSMO-Ru7 is 70.9% on the first day of the forecast, which is 1.8, 4.8, and 11.7% higher than the accuracy of HIRLAM-5, WRF-ARWv4.0, and GFSv15 forecasts, respectively.</p>

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Verification of Daily Wind Speed Forecasts Using Models of the Atmospheric Circulation in the Baltic Sea

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月1日

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  • E. V. Zakharova,
  • E. M. Ladokhina,
  • S. K. Popov,
  • V. V. Fomin,
  • N. A. Diansky

摘要

Abstract

The paper presents a comparison of the data series on 10-m wind speed for the period September 1–October 30, 2019 for 127 ground-based observation stations on the Baltic Sea coast and daily forecast data from the GFSv15, WRF-ARWv4.0, COSMO-Ru7, and HIRLAM-5 models. During this period, two storm situations were observed (September 15–16 and October 1–2, 2019), which led to the closure of the dam culverts. It is shown that for wind speeds of 4 m/s and more, the accuracy of the wind speed forecast with COSMO-Ru7 is 70.9% on the first day of the forecast, which is 1.8, 4.8, and 11.7% higher than the accuracy of HIRLAM-5, WRF-ARWv4.0, and GFSv15 forecasts, respectively.