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Abstract <p>The skill of seasonal forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice characteristics is estimated. Forecast skill estimates are calculated for two versions of the INM RAS Earth System Model (INM-CM5 and INM-CM6), which differ in the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric and aerosol blocks and some parameterizations of physical processes: cloudiness, indirect effect of aerosols, and snow cover evolution. It is shown that in most cases, the skill estimates of SST and ice characteristic forecasts based on the INM-CM6 version are higher than those for the INM-CM5. The obtained estimates are comparable with skill estimates from foreign centers, confirming the compliance of the forecast system based on the INM model with the world level of seasonal forecast skill.</p>

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Verification of Seasonal Forecasts of Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Conditions Based on the Earth System Model Developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月20日

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  • Yu. D. Resnyanskii,
  • A. A. Zelenko,
  • V. N. Stepanov,
  • B. S . Strukov,
  • V. M. Khan,
  • E. M. Volodin,
  • A. S. Gritsun,
  • M. A. Tarasevich,
  • V. V. Bragina

摘要

Abstract

The skill of seasonal forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice characteristics is estimated. Forecast skill estimates are calculated for two versions of the INM RAS Earth System Model (INM-CM5 and INM-CM6), which differ in the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric and aerosol blocks and some parameterizations of physical processes: cloudiness, indirect effect of aerosols, and snow cover evolution. It is shown that in most cases, the skill estimates of SST and ice characteristic forecasts based on the INM-CM6 version are higher than those for the INM-CM5. The obtained estimates are comparable with skill estimates from foreign centers, confirming the compliance of the forecast system based on the INM model with the world level of seasonal forecast skill.