Scholarlink

Abstract <p>The paper examines the impact of applying the parameter perturbations for schemes describing sub-grid scale processes in the SL-AV atmosphere model on characteristics of monthly mean atmospheric circulation in ensemble subseasonal forecasts. 25-year retrospective forecasts are computed for different seasons with different perturbation sets, and the results are compared with the forecasts without perturbations. It is shown that perturbing just three parameters reduces forecast errors of some variables as compared to unperturbed forecasts without introducing errors into integral characteristics.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Application of Stochastic Parameter Perturbations in SL-AV Model Version for Long-range Forecasts

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月20日

查看全文
  • K. A. Alipova,
  • M. A. Tolstykh,
  • R. Yu. Fadeev

摘要

Abstract

The paper examines the impact of applying the parameter perturbations for schemes describing sub-grid scale processes in the SL-AV atmosphere model on characteristics of monthly mean atmospheric circulation in ensemble subseasonal forecasts. 25-year retrospective forecasts are computed for different seasons with different perturbation sets, and the results are compared with the forecasts without perturbations. It is shown that perturbing just three parameters reduces forecast errors of some variables as compared to unperturbed forecasts without introducing errors into integral characteristics.