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Abstract <p>Based on the data from the catalog of natural disasters in Georgia for 60 meteorological stations over the period 1961–2022, long-term trends in the characteristics of hurricane winds (frequency and magnitude) were studied. A statistically significant downward trend in the activity and magnitude of hurricane winds in recent years has been identified. The changes in hurricane activity reveal a cyclic pattern, which may be explained by the peculiarities of atmospheric circulation. The increased activity of hurricane winds in the early 1960s may be caused by the onset of the period of easterlies and by the intensification of meridional circulation. A significant increase in hurricane activity in the middle of the 1970s and 1990s could be caused by a weakening of meridional circulation and an increased activity of easterlies. A slight increase in the frequency of hurricanes in 2000–2010 may be explained by the intensification of westerlies. A possible reason for the weakening of hurricane activity and magnitude over the past decade is an increase in the surface roughness.</p>

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Long-term Trends in the Frequency and Intensity of Hurricane Winds over the Territory of Georgia in 1961–2022

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月1日

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  • E. Sh. Elizbarashvili,
  • O. Sh. Varazanashvili,
  • A. G. Amiranashvili,
  • M. G. Pipia

摘要

Abstract

Based on the data from the catalog of natural disasters in Georgia for 60 meteorological stations over the period 1961–2022, long-term trends in the characteristics of hurricane winds (frequency and magnitude) were studied. A statistically significant downward trend in the activity and magnitude of hurricane winds in recent years has been identified. The changes in hurricane activity reveal a cyclic pattern, which may be explained by the peculiarities of atmospheric circulation. The increased activity of hurricane winds in the early 1960s may be caused by the onset of the period of easterlies and by the intensification of meridional circulation. A significant increase in hurricane activity in the middle of the 1970s and 1990s could be caused by a weakening of meridional circulation and an increased activity of easterlies. A slight increase in the frequency of hurricanes in 2000–2010 may be explained by the intensification of westerlies. A possible reason for the weakening of hurricane activity and magnitude over the past decade is an increase in the surface roughness.