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Abstract <p>Spectral effects of the coupling between the temperature variability in the North Atlantic (NATV) and North Pacific (where the El Niño phenomena are formed) are estimated from the monthly data over the period 1870–2022 on the basis of empirical autoregressive models. These ocean areas are associated with the manifestation of both regionally and globally significant energetically active oceanic zones. In the obtained models of the “fast” components of El Niño and NATV, it is their bidirectional coupling that provides a clear spectral peak on periods of 3–4 years for both processes, in particular, under removal of the 5-year moving average. The removal of the coupling in any of the two directions leads to the disappearance of the peak in the NATV power spectrum and at least its strong smearing in the El Niño power spectrum. The estimates obtained in the present study are important for more adequate understanding of the mechanisms that form the peculiarities of key quasicyclic processes in the climate system which influence the global and regional climate variability and predictability of regional climate anomalies.</p>

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Spectral Estimates of the Role of the Coupling between El Niño Events and the North Atlantic Temperature Variability

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月1日

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  • I. I. Mokhov,
  • D. A. Smirnov

摘要

Abstract

Spectral effects of the coupling between the temperature variability in the North Atlantic (NATV) and North Pacific (where the El Niño phenomena are formed) are estimated from the monthly data over the period 1870–2022 on the basis of empirical autoregressive models. These ocean areas are associated with the manifestation of both regionally and globally significant energetically active oceanic zones. In the obtained models of the “fast” components of El Niño and NATV, it is their bidirectional coupling that provides a clear spectral peak on periods of 3–4 years for both processes, in particular, under removal of the 5-year moving average. The removal of the coupling in any of the two directions leads to the disappearance of the peak in the NATV power spectrum and at least its strong smearing in the El Niño power spectrum. The estimates obtained in the present study are important for more adequate understanding of the mechanisms that form the peculiarities of key quasicyclic processes in the climate system which influence the global and regional climate variability and predictability of regional climate anomalies.