Abstract <p>This article considers the specific features of implementing investment import-substituting projects in the hardware industry of the Russian Federation. The main factors influencing investors’ decisions on implementing investment projects are highlighted. To assess the effectiveness of investment import-substituting projects in the hardware subsector of ferrous metallurgy, an original methodology is developed that takes into account the risks of disruption of supplies of foreign technological equipment and allows for a comprehensive assessment of industry modernization projects. The need to justify investment decisions with allowance for the effect from officially supported measures is substantiated. The methodology is developed to stimulate hardware enterprises to invest in import-substituting technological modernization. An assessment is made of the expected increase in tax revenues from implementing the import substitution policy in the hardware subsector of ferrous metallurgy, which is based on the fulfillment of target indicators approved for the period up to 2030 at the state level of programs and strategies for the development of national economy sectors that are the main hardware consumers.</p>