Assessment of the Maximum Seismic Risk for the Territory of Armenia
摘要
A methodology has been developed to assess the following components of seismic risk in the territory of Armenia: buildings, population, and infrastructure. According to the methodology, risk is assessed based on data on the seismic hazard, vulnerability of buildings and structures, vulnerability of the population, and influence of a number of secondary consequences of an earthquake. The development of the methodology is based on the regulatory map of seismic hazard of the territory of the republic in 2020, the areas of seismic zones of which are taken as cells for risk assessment. First, the risk was assessed for ten cells with an area of 1.1–4.9 thousand km2, then for the entire territory of Armenia. This approach is justified by the fact that the level of modern seismic hazard and the intensity of the design seismicity of buildings and existing buildings are reasonably taken into account. Particular attention is paid to buildings constructed in 1957–1989, since it was during this period of time that a large number of seismically vulnerable apartment, public, and other buildings and structures of various purposes and types were built, which significantly influence the current high seismic risk of the territory of the republic. The risk of each cell is determined based on the vulnerability of residential buildings in all populated areas (49 cities and 949 villages), the size and density of the population, infrastructure, the influence of hazardous geological phenomena activated by an earthquake, etc. These are strongly influenced by the following important factors: underestimated design seismicity, low-quality design and construction, current technical condition depending on age, illegal changes to layouts and load-bearing structures, etc. Determining the seismic vulnerability of buildings and structures and the population is quite difficult; for this reason, it is recommended to afford the leading place in the quantitative assessment of risk components to statistical data on the consequences of the 1988 Spitak earthquake and results of their analysis. For the first time, using the developed methodology, maps of the maximum seismic risk of three important components were compiled for the entire territory of Armenia.