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Abstract <p>This study presents a modified vector autoregression (VAR) method for forecasting the quality metrics of overlay channels. The modification introduces weighted coefficients for time series quantiles, with two approaches proposed for calculating these weighting coefficients: exponential EVAR) and linear (LVAR). Experimental results have demonstrated that the proposed modification improves prediction accuracy by 2.6 to 25.2<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\%\)</EquationSource> <!--CMatCMGU2570026Fenzhui-m1--> </InlineEquation> compared to classical AR and VAR methods, albeit at the expense of higher computational complexity.</p>

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On Forecasting Overlay Channel Quality

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月15日

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  • F. Guo,
  • V. Yu. Korolev,
  • R. L. Smelyansky

摘要

Abstract

This study presents a modified vector autoregression (VAR) method for forecasting the quality metrics of overlay channels. The modification introduces weighted coefficients for time series quantiles, with two approaches proposed for calculating these weighting coefficients: exponential EVAR) and linear (LVAR). Experimental results have demonstrated that the proposed modification improves prediction accuracy by 2.6 to 25.2 \(\%\) compared to classical AR and VAR methods, albeit at the expense of higher computational complexity.