Abstract <p>Central Asia’s fossil fuel-based energy systems need to transition towards clean energy to ensure energy security and sustainability. According to Central Asian energy reports, the sector related greenhouse gas emissions contribute to more than 80% of the total emissions of the region. At the same time more than 80% of power generation is still fossil fuel based while other sectors (e.g. transport) are still almost exclusively consuming fossil fuels. As the country with the fastest growing energy demand of the region, Uzbekistan aims to reach a 25% of renewable energy in power generation and to develop substantial capacities to produce green hydrogen by 2030. Further, the nationwide electricity consumption is expected to increase by more than 60% by 2030, which poses a significant challenge to the energy sector development. This work critically assesses the Uzbek Renewable Energy Development Strategy for 2030. It reviews the government’s current energy strategy to transform its power system, considering renewable energy and green hydrogen deployment. The work provides a modeling approach to identify the cost-efficient pathways of the Uzbek power sector using the Open Energy Modeling Framework (OEMOF). Preliminary results suggest that the Uzbek Governments renewable electricity strategy can be achieved at reasonable prices and already lower overall power costs. However, further optimizations find that much higher renewable energy shares are also possible at competitive costs under the same framework conditions.</p>

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Energy Transition in Central Asia: The Cost-Optimal Pathways towards Uzbek Renewable Power Future

  • U. Avlokulov,
  • E. T. Juraev,
  • F. N. Nabiev,
  • P. Bertheau

摘要

Abstract

Central Asia’s fossil fuel-based energy systems need to transition towards clean energy to ensure energy security and sustainability. According to Central Asian energy reports, the sector related greenhouse gas emissions contribute to more than 80% of the total emissions of the region. At the same time more than 80% of power generation is still fossil fuel based while other sectors (e.g. transport) are still almost exclusively consuming fossil fuels. As the country with the fastest growing energy demand of the region, Uzbekistan aims to reach a 25% of renewable energy in power generation and to develop substantial capacities to produce green hydrogen by 2030. Further, the nationwide electricity consumption is expected to increase by more than 60% by 2030, which poses a significant challenge to the energy sector development. This work critically assesses the Uzbek Renewable Energy Development Strategy for 2030. It reviews the government’s current energy strategy to transform its power system, considering renewable energy and green hydrogen deployment. The work provides a modeling approach to identify the cost-efficient pathways of the Uzbek power sector using the Open Energy Modeling Framework (OEMOF). Preliminary results suggest that the Uzbek Governments renewable electricity strategy can be achieved at reasonable prices and already lower overall power costs. However, further optimizations find that much higher renewable energy shares are also possible at competitive costs under the same framework conditions.