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<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause torrential rainfall and cause severe disasters. To assess the possible worst heavy rainfall events in mid-latitude regions under warming climates, the top 10 heavy rainfall events over Hokkaido, Japan, were selected from around 100 TC cases in large-ensemble climate change simulations of both historical and 4-K warming climates. The results of dynamical downscaling experiments using a 2-km-mesh regional model show a 42% increase in mean accumulated rainfall over Hokkaido during the warming-climate events, compared to that during the historical-climate events. Increases in rainfall preceding TC passage were particularly high. Two types of the worst heavy rainfall events are proposed: top 10 events with high amounts of rainfall preceding the TC passage (Preced10) and those with high amounts of rainfall occurring during the storm passage (TY10). Under a warming climate, Preced10 caused significantly higher amounts of rainfall than TY10. Moreover, Preced10 brought rainfall throughout Hokkaido, whereas rainfall during TY10 was concentrated on the eastern side of Hokkaido. A combination of higher amounts of water vapor, higher temperatures, and slower TC movement under a warming climate produced the worst unprecedented heavy rain events due to long-term rainfall preceding TC passage.</p>

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Assessing the Possible Worst Heavy Rainfall Events in Mid-latitude Associated with Tropical Cyclones under Warming Climates

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月1日

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  • Sachie Kanada

摘要

Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause torrential rainfall and cause severe disasters. To assess the possible worst heavy rainfall events in mid-latitude regions under warming climates, the top 10 heavy rainfall events over Hokkaido, Japan, were selected from around 100 TC cases in large-ensemble climate change simulations of both historical and 4-K warming climates. The results of dynamical downscaling experiments using a 2-km-mesh regional model show a 42% increase in mean accumulated rainfall over Hokkaido during the warming-climate events, compared to that during the historical-climate events. Increases in rainfall preceding TC passage were particularly high. Two types of the worst heavy rainfall events are proposed: top 10 events with high amounts of rainfall preceding the TC passage (Preced10) and those with high amounts of rainfall occurring during the storm passage (TY10). Under a warming climate, Preced10 caused significantly higher amounts of rainfall than TY10. Moreover, Preced10 brought rainfall throughout Hokkaido, whereas rainfall during TY10 was concentrated on the eastern side of Hokkaido. A combination of higher amounts of water vapor, higher temperatures, and slower TC movement under a warming climate produced the worst unprecedented heavy rain events due to long-term rainfall preceding TC passage.