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Background <p>Frequent and extensive fires in the late dry season are a feature of the miombo woodlands of central Africa. A knowledge of prevailing fire regimes at a local scale is required to set realistic and appropriate targets that will sustainably conserve ecosystems and to plan accordingly. We used data from satellite remote sensing (Landsat and Sentinel) to quantify the recent fire regimes in the Kafue National Park (KNP) and surrounding Game Management Areas (GMAs) in Zambia between 2014 and 2025. We then assessed whether current management targets would be achievable and appropriate in the light of existing ecological understanding and the realities of current burning practices.</p> Results <p>Fire frequency was very high across the entire study area, with a median fire return interval of 1.39&#xa0;years. Fire return intervals differed slightly between&#xa0;the KNP and the GMAs (1.26 and 1.49&#xa0;years, respectively). Fire survival curves indicated that 50% of the landscape burns again within 1.3&#xa0;years after a previous fire, and only 3% remained unburnt at 5 years. Fire activity was strongly concentrated in the dry season, with 86.1% and 83.2% of the area burning annually between May and September in the KNP and in the GMAs, respectively. The largest monthly proportion burnt in June in the KNP and in August in the GMAs. There were 12.5 times more fire starts in the GMAs than in KNP (1.5 vs 0.12 fire starts km⁻<sup>2</sup>&#xa0;year⁻<sup>1</sup>, respectively). Average fire sizes tended to be larger across the GKE early in the dry season, and average fire sizes were about six times larger in the KNP than in the GMAs. Average fire sizes declined throughout the dry season in the GMAs, but the largest fires occurred both in the early dry season (in May) and in the&#xa0;late dry season (in September) in KNP.</p> Conclusions <p>Fire sizes differed markedly between the KNP and the GMAs. Although a similar proportion burnt each year, there were fewer, and larger fires in the KNP compared to the GMAs. The higher human population density and widespread traditional use of burning led to many more fires being initiated in the GMAs, while extensive habitat fragmentation in the GMAs led to discontinuous fuel beds and smaller fires. Managers currently aim to reduce fire frequency and to burn a larger proportion of the area in the early dry season, both to protect fire-sensitive trees and to potentially generate income by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The targets that have been set are modest, and ecological understanding of the effects of fires in miombo woodlands suggest that these changes, if achieved, would not be ecologically detrimental. Achieving the target for a seasonal shift should be attainable, but reducing the frequency of fires will be challenging given the very high number of ignitions and the widespread and largely unregulated traditional use of fire by local communities in the GMAs.</p>

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Fire frequency and seasonality in the miombo woodlands of the Greater Kafue Ecosystem, Zambia, and implications for fire management

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月21日

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  • Brian W. van Wilgen,
  • Hayden Wilson,
  • Andrew Purdon

摘要

Background

Frequent and extensive fires in the late dry season are a feature of the miombo woodlands of central Africa. A knowledge of prevailing fire regimes at a local scale is required to set realistic and appropriate targets that will sustainably conserve ecosystems and to plan accordingly. We used data from satellite remote sensing (Landsat and Sentinel) to quantify the recent fire regimes in the Kafue National Park (KNP) and surrounding Game Management Areas (GMAs) in Zambia between 2014 and 2025. We then assessed whether current management targets would be achievable and appropriate in the light of existing ecological understanding and the realities of current burning practices.

Results

Fire frequency was very high across the entire study area, with a median fire return interval of 1.39 years. Fire return intervals differed slightly between the KNP and the GMAs (1.26 and 1.49 years, respectively). Fire survival curves indicated that 50% of the landscape burns again within 1.3 years after a previous fire, and only 3% remained unburnt at 5 years. Fire activity was strongly concentrated in the dry season, with 86.1% and 83.2% of the area burning annually between May and September in the KNP and in the GMAs, respectively. The largest monthly proportion burnt in June in the KNP and in August in the GMAs. There were 12.5 times more fire starts in the GMAs than in KNP (1.5 vs 0.12 fire starts km⁻2 year⁻1, respectively). Average fire sizes tended to be larger across the GKE early in the dry season, and average fire sizes were about six times larger in the KNP than in the GMAs. Average fire sizes declined throughout the dry season in the GMAs, but the largest fires occurred both in the early dry season (in May) and in the late dry season (in September) in KNP.

Conclusions

Fire sizes differed markedly between the KNP and the GMAs. Although a similar proportion burnt each year, there were fewer, and larger fires in the KNP compared to the GMAs. The higher human population density and widespread traditional use of burning led to many more fires being initiated in the GMAs, while extensive habitat fragmentation in the GMAs led to discontinuous fuel beds and smaller fires. Managers currently aim to reduce fire frequency and to burn a larger proportion of the area in the early dry season, both to protect fire-sensitive trees and to potentially generate income by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The targets that have been set are modest, and ecological understanding of the effects of fires in miombo woodlands suggest that these changes, if achieved, would not be ecologically detrimental. Achieving the target for a seasonal shift should be attainable, but reducing the frequency of fires will be challenging given the very high number of ignitions and the widespread and largely unregulated traditional use of fire by local communities in the GMAs.