<p>Ukraine has emerged as a critical hotspot of wildfire activity, where climate change, land-use transformation, and armed conflict intersect to reshape fire regimes and environmental hazards. Using two decades (2001–2024) of satellite data and generalized linear mixed models, we analyze temporal, seasonal, and spatial patterns of fire activity across the country and identify their climatic, land-use, and conflict-related drivers. Fire activity peaked around 2010 and exhibited a consistent bimodal seasonality, with dominant spring and secondary late-summer peaks. Rising temperatures and declining precipitation significantly increased fire occurrence, especially in the aridifying central, southern, and eastern regions. Land-use patterns further modulated these effects, with abandoned agricultural and grassland areas showing the highest fire densities. Since 2014, and particularly after the 2022 escalation, armed conflict has intensified fire activity near frontlines, introducing new ignition sources and weakening suppression capacity. Our results demonstrate that warfare can amplify climate- and land-use-driven fire hazards, reshaping fire regimes in temperate landscapes. Strengthening adaptive management, rebuilding monitoring systems, and integrating conflict considerations into fire governance are critical for mitigating compounding hazards in Ukraine and other conflict-affected regions worldwide.</p>

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War, climate change, and land use shape wildfire dynamics in Ukraine, 2001–2024

  • Anastasiia Zymaroieva,
  • Serhii Sydorenko,
  • Olha Kunakh,
  • Jens-Christian Svenning,
  • Olexander Zhukov

摘要

Ukraine has emerged as a critical hotspot of wildfire activity, where climate change, land-use transformation, and armed conflict intersect to reshape fire regimes and environmental hazards. Using two decades (2001–2024) of satellite data and generalized linear mixed models, we analyze temporal, seasonal, and spatial patterns of fire activity across the country and identify their climatic, land-use, and conflict-related drivers. Fire activity peaked around 2010 and exhibited a consistent bimodal seasonality, with dominant spring and secondary late-summer peaks. Rising temperatures and declining precipitation significantly increased fire occurrence, especially in the aridifying central, southern, and eastern regions. Land-use patterns further modulated these effects, with abandoned agricultural and grassland areas showing the highest fire densities. Since 2014, and particularly after the 2022 escalation, armed conflict has intensified fire activity near frontlines, introducing new ignition sources and weakening suppression capacity. Our results demonstrate that warfare can amplify climate- and land-use-driven fire hazards, reshaping fire regimes in temperate landscapes. Strengthening adaptive management, rebuilding monitoring systems, and integrating conflict considerations into fire governance are critical for mitigating compounding hazards in Ukraine and other conflict-affected regions worldwide.