Background <p>Accurate sex estimation from skeletal remains is fundamental to forensic identification, yet fragmented or incomplete bones often hinder this process. This study evaluates the morphometric utility of the tibia for sex estimation, to establish population-specific standards for a Thai sample (<i>N</i> = 200). Emphasis was placed on validating the tibial tuberosity (TT) as a novel variable for assessing fragmentary remains. Nine variables were measured with digital caliper and osteometric board and measuring tape. Statistical analyses included paired-sample and independent t-tests to assess bilateral differences and sexual dimorphism. Multivariate and univariate sex-estimation equations were developed using both direct and stepwise discriminant function analysis (DFA). The performance of these models was further validated using an independent holdout sample. Measurement reliability was also rigorously evaluated using the Technical Error of Measurement (TEM) and coefficient of reliability (R).</p> Results <p>All variables exhibited highly significant sexual dimorphism (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01) with no significant bilateral asymmetry. Multivariate DFA equations showed very-high accuracy, complete tibia variables achieved 99.5%, while variables from TT reached 98.0% accuracy. In the independent holdout validation, three multivariate models achieved 100% classification accuracy with 95% CI more than 91.2%. Among univariate models, the upper articular breadth (UB) was the most powerful predictor, followed by the longitudinal diameter of the tibial tuberosity (LongTT) and lower breadth (LB). While intra-observer reliability was excellent (<i>R</i> &gt; 0.91), TT measurements showed higher inter-observer variability, with LongTT yielding the lowest yet acceptable reliability (<i>R</i> = 0.76; rTEM = 6.45%).</p> Conclusion <p>This study provides population-specific osteometric standards and validated sex-estimation equations for the Thai population. The findings confirm that the proximal one-third of the tibia harbors a robust dimorphic signal sufficient for near-perfect sex classification. Despite the higher morphological variability of the TT region, its high accuracy (90.0%) suggests that it can effectively overcome minor technical errors. These population-specific standards provide a high-performance toolkit for identifying fragmented remains in the Thai population, particularly when key variables are damaged or unavailable.</p>

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Sex estimation from the tibia in Thais: validation of tibial tuberosity as a novel osteometric indicator

  • Phannavich Malawan,
  • Pasuk Mahakkanukrauh

摘要

Background

Accurate sex estimation from skeletal remains is fundamental to forensic identification, yet fragmented or incomplete bones often hinder this process. This study evaluates the morphometric utility of the tibia for sex estimation, to establish population-specific standards for a Thai sample (N = 200). Emphasis was placed on validating the tibial tuberosity (TT) as a novel variable for assessing fragmentary remains. Nine variables were measured with digital caliper and osteometric board and measuring tape. Statistical analyses included paired-sample and independent t-tests to assess bilateral differences and sexual dimorphism. Multivariate and univariate sex-estimation equations were developed using both direct and stepwise discriminant function analysis (DFA). The performance of these models was further validated using an independent holdout sample. Measurement reliability was also rigorously evaluated using the Technical Error of Measurement (TEM) and coefficient of reliability (R).

Results

All variables exhibited highly significant sexual dimorphism (p < 0.01) with no significant bilateral asymmetry. Multivariate DFA equations showed very-high accuracy, complete tibia variables achieved 99.5%, while variables from TT reached 98.0% accuracy. In the independent holdout validation, three multivariate models achieved 100% classification accuracy with 95% CI more than 91.2%. Among univariate models, the upper articular breadth (UB) was the most powerful predictor, followed by the longitudinal diameter of the tibial tuberosity (LongTT) and lower breadth (LB). While intra-observer reliability was excellent (R > 0.91), TT measurements showed higher inter-observer variability, with LongTT yielding the lowest yet acceptable reliability (R = 0.76; rTEM = 6.45%).

Conclusion

This study provides population-specific osteometric standards and validated sex-estimation equations for the Thai population. The findings confirm that the proximal one-third of the tibia harbors a robust dimorphic signal sufficient for near-perfect sex classification. Despite the higher morphological variability of the TT region, its high accuracy (90.0%) suggests that it can effectively overcome minor technical errors. These population-specific standards provide a high-performance toolkit for identifying fragmented remains in the Thai population, particularly when key variables are damaged or unavailable.