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<p>This study investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty, oil volatility, oil prices, and gold prices on pessimistic and optimistic sentiment toward Bitcoin. The research employs the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model (QARDL-ECM) to analyze the relationships among economic policy uncertainty, oil volatility, the gold price, and Bitcoin sentiment from January 2014 to December 2020. The econometric analysis reveals that both the short-term and long-term behaviors of Bitcoin sentiment remain consistent in both the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. The findings of this study have significant implications for legislators, stockholders, and investors, as they provide valuable insights for making informed decisions regarding investment allocation in Bitcoin sentiments. Moreover, the study offers a unique framework that can be utilized by portfolio managers and speculative investors in these markets.</p>

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Quantitative assessment of the link between economic uncertainty and cryptocurrency sentiment: evidence from QARDL modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月1日

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  • Kashif Abbass,
  • Muhammad Tahir Suleman,
  • Huaming Song,
  • Arshian Sharif

摘要

This study investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty, oil volatility, oil prices, and gold prices on pessimistic and optimistic sentiment toward Bitcoin. The research employs the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model (QARDL-ECM) to analyze the relationships among economic policy uncertainty, oil volatility, the gold price, and Bitcoin sentiment from January 2014 to December 2020. The econometric analysis reveals that both the short-term and long-term behaviors of Bitcoin sentiment remain consistent in both the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. The findings of this study have significant implications for legislators, stockholders, and investors, as they provide valuable insights for making informed decisions regarding investment allocation in Bitcoin sentiments. Moreover, the study offers a unique framework that can be utilized by portfolio managers and speculative investors in these markets.