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<p>This study examines the influence of a 30-day “cooling-off period” regulation on trends in divorce registration in China. It sheds light on this intervention’s impact on certain unobserved subjective factors—notably,&#xa0;impulsiveness—in divorce decision-making in China. The analysis employs province–quarter-level data on divorce registrations from the Ministry of Civil Affairs from 2018 to 2021 and further incorporates data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China Judgments Online, and the Baidu Index. Using policy evaluation methods, such as the event-study and difference-in-differences estimations, the evidence suggests that the policy has had a substantial influence—reducing divorces by 10,300–13,200 per province per quarter. On average, this amounts to a decline of 33%–42% compared with the previous three years. Moreover, the influence appears to be greater in provinces with more previously divorced couples restoring their marriages, more divorces between young couples, and more internet searches about the policy and divorce-related information, highlighting some potential mechanisms underlying the intervention.</p>

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A wait perhaps worthwhile: the influence of China’s “cooling-off period” regulation on trends in divorce registration

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月5日

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  • Hao Dong

摘要

This study examines the influence of a 30-day “cooling-off period” regulation on trends in divorce registration in China. It sheds light on this intervention’s impact on certain unobserved subjective factors—notably, impulsiveness—in divorce decision-making in China. The analysis employs province–quarter-level data on divorce registrations from the Ministry of Civil Affairs from 2018 to 2021 and further incorporates data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China Judgments Online, and the Baidu Index. Using policy evaluation methods, such as the event-study and difference-in-differences estimations, the evidence suggests that the policy has had a substantial influence—reducing divorces by 10,300–13,200 per province per quarter. On average, this amounts to a decline of 33%–42% compared with the previous three years. Moreover, the influence appears to be greater in provinces with more previously divorced couples restoring their marriages, more divorces between young couples, and more internet searches about the policy and divorce-related information, highlighting some potential mechanisms underlying the intervention.