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Background <p>Earthquakes are the deadliest natural disasters affecting the human environment. Global seismic risk and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes.</p> Purpose <p>Successful preventive measures and planning of post-earthquake activities are based on scenarios of expected damage, destruction and casualties from predicted strong seismic impacts.</p> Methods <p>The study presents the comprehensive and advanced earthquake hazard assessment for the city of Blagoevgrad. The earthquake hazard for the city is estimated using both probabilistic and deterministic methods. The ground-shaking representations for the city of Blagoevgrad are produced through a GIS, by combining: active faults capable of generating strong earthquakes; location and geometry of the scenario earthquake source with assigned magnitude; an appropriate GMPE’s, consistent with the seismotectonic features of the region; and account soil amplification effects using geological zonation of the considered urban area.</p> Results <p>The deterministic and probabilistic estimates of maximum acceleration vary across the city in the range of 0.26 g - 0.45 g for MW7.2 earthquake and from 0.23g to 30.40 g for the 475- year return period respectively. The highest acceleration and velocity values are in the central and south western parts of the Blagoevgrad city.</p> Conclusion <p>The results of the study show that most of the Blagoevgrad territory is classified at the highest seismic hazard level - PGA larger than 0.3 g and PGV more than 24 cm/s. The results from the study will assist decision-makers involved in local and state government to manage potential damage and loss of life from strong earthquakes occurred in and near the city of Blagoevgrad.</p>

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Ground motion scenarios for Blagoevgrad city (Bulgaria)

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月19日

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  • Dimcho Solakov,
  • Stela Simeonova,
  • Plamena Raykova

摘要

Background

Earthquakes are the deadliest natural disasters affecting the human environment. Global seismic risk and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes.

Purpose

Successful preventive measures and planning of post-earthquake activities are based on scenarios of expected damage, destruction and casualties from predicted strong seismic impacts.

Methods

The study presents the comprehensive and advanced earthquake hazard assessment for the city of Blagoevgrad. The earthquake hazard for the city is estimated using both probabilistic and deterministic methods. The ground-shaking representations for the city of Blagoevgrad are produced through a GIS, by combining: active faults capable of generating strong earthquakes; location and geometry of the scenario earthquake source with assigned magnitude; an appropriate GMPE’s, consistent with the seismotectonic features of the region; and account soil amplification effects using geological zonation of the considered urban area.

Results

The deterministic and probabilistic estimates of maximum acceleration vary across the city in the range of 0.26 g - 0.45 g for MW7.2 earthquake and from 0.23g to 30.40 g for the 475- year return period respectively. The highest acceleration and velocity values are in the central and south western parts of the Blagoevgrad city.

Conclusion

The results of the study show that most of the Blagoevgrad territory is classified at the highest seismic hazard level - PGA larger than 0.3 g and PGV more than 24 cm/s. The results from the study will assist decision-makers involved in local and state government to manage potential damage and loss of life from strong earthquakes occurred in and near the city of Blagoevgrad.