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Purpose <p>Schistosomiasis (SCH) japonica remains a persistent public health concern in the Philippines despite continuing control efforts. This study aims to examine the transmission dynamics of SCH japonica and evaluate different intervention strategies using a One Health modeling approach, with the goal of supporting feasible control and elimination targets.</p> Methods <p>We developed a compartmental mathematical model calibrated using field survey data collected in 2022 from eight endemic barangays in Agusan del Sur and Surigao del Norte. The dataset included SCH prevalence, egg excretion levels in humans and animals quantified through Kato-Katz, modified McMaster, and sedimentation techniques, and household distance to potential transmission sites. Multiple intervention strategies were examined, including human and animal chemotherapy, WaSH (water access, sanitation, and hygiene) adoption, pasture prohibition, vegetation clearing, and snail control. Sensitivity analysis using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) was performed to identify influential transmission drivers.</p> Results <p>The model estimates baseline prevalence at approximately 20% in humans across the study areas. Under medium WaSH adoption, human prevalence is projected to decline to approximately 1.01% by 2030, whereas high WaSH coverage further reduces prevalence to 0.64%. Combining WaSH and pasture prohibition alongside chemotherapy is projected to reduce human prevalence to 0.09% and animal prevalence to 0.10% by 2030. Sensitivity analysis identified snail-to-human transmission rate (PRCC = 0.612) and snail shedding rate (PRCC = 0.607) as the most influential parameters.</p> Conclusion <p>Integrated strategies focusing on WaSH, reduced animal exposure, and targeted chemotherapy offer the most effective pathway toward achieving World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) 2030 SCH targets. Implementation should be strengthened through health education, behavioral interventions, mechanization support, and active Local Government Unit (LGU) participation.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Schistosomiasis japonica transmission dynamics: mathematical modeling in guiding One Health approach control strategies

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月9日

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  • Norvin P. Bansilan,
  • Joaquin M. Prada,
  • Allen Jethro I. Alonte,
  • Martha Elizabeth Betson,
  • Vachel Gay V. Paller,
  • Jomar F. Rabajante

摘要

Purpose

Schistosomiasis (SCH) japonica remains a persistent public health concern in the Philippines despite continuing control efforts. This study aims to examine the transmission dynamics of SCH japonica and evaluate different intervention strategies using a One Health modeling approach, with the goal of supporting feasible control and elimination targets.

Methods

We developed a compartmental mathematical model calibrated using field survey data collected in 2022 from eight endemic barangays in Agusan del Sur and Surigao del Norte. The dataset included SCH prevalence, egg excretion levels in humans and animals quantified through Kato-Katz, modified McMaster, and sedimentation techniques, and household distance to potential transmission sites. Multiple intervention strategies were examined, including human and animal chemotherapy, WaSH (water access, sanitation, and hygiene) adoption, pasture prohibition, vegetation clearing, and snail control. Sensitivity analysis using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) was performed to identify influential transmission drivers.

Results

The model estimates baseline prevalence at approximately 20% in humans across the study areas. Under medium WaSH adoption, human prevalence is projected to decline to approximately 1.01% by 2030, whereas high WaSH coverage further reduces prevalence to 0.64%. Combining WaSH and pasture prohibition alongside chemotherapy is projected to reduce human prevalence to 0.09% and animal prevalence to 0.10% by 2030. Sensitivity analysis identified snail-to-human transmission rate (PRCC = 0.612) and snail shedding rate (PRCC = 0.607) as the most influential parameters.

Conclusion

Integrated strategies focusing on WaSH, reduced animal exposure, and targeted chemotherapy offer the most effective pathway toward achieving World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) 2030 SCH targets. Implementation should be strengthened through health education, behavioral interventions, mechanization support, and active Local Government Unit (LGU) participation.

Graphical Abstract