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<p>The presented analysis provides important evidence of longitudinal spatial and temporal changes in homicide-related crimes in Mexico between January 2015 and June 2024 in 276 geographical regions. For this purpose, a combination of TOPSIS multi-criteria decision analysis method and Markov chain approach was used. The results revealed low month-to-month variations in homicide-related crimes occurrence across the country, as the 15 most violent regions have remained nearly unchanged since 2015. In this case, the results indicate a 76.96% probability that highly violent regions remain so, while there is only a 17.90% chance of improvement. The presented findings provide insights into the structural and dynamic factors perpetuating violence, contributing to more effective security policies.</p>

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Understanding the evolution of homicide-related crimes in Mexico: a TOPSIS-Markovian approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月15日

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  • Martin Flegl,
  • Mayra Fernanda Hernández Trejo,
  • Patrick Joaquín Cruz,
  • Eva Selene Hernández Gress

摘要

The presented analysis provides important evidence of longitudinal spatial and temporal changes in homicide-related crimes in Mexico between January 2015 and June 2024 in 276 geographical regions. For this purpose, a combination of TOPSIS multi-criteria decision analysis method and Markov chain approach was used. The results revealed low month-to-month variations in homicide-related crimes occurrence across the country, as the 15 most violent regions have remained nearly unchanged since 2015. In this case, the results indicate a 76.96% probability that highly violent regions remain so, while there is only a 17.90% chance of improvement. The presented findings provide insights into the structural and dynamic factors perpetuating violence, contributing to more effective security policies.