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<p>International trade is a fundamental driver of economic growth and a key source of foreign exchange diversification in modern economies. Within this context, the export of dairy products offers substantial potential for Iran’s economy to leverage international trade opportunities. This research comprehensively evaluates the export performance of Iran's dairy products and identifies the determining patterns of trade performance, with a specific focus on quantifying the gap between actual performance and potential export capacity in target markets. To achieve this, the analytical framework of the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model (SFGM) was employed. The analysis was based on comprehensive panel data from 27 countries importing Iran’s dairy products during the 2002–2023 period. The research findings indicate a significant impact of the fundamental variables of the gravity model. Specifically, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Iran (with a coefficient of + 0.52) and that of destination countries (+ 0.45), alongside the deterrent effect of geographical distance (-0.81), play pivotal roles in determining trade patterns. Beyond these classic factors, institutional variables, including economic freedom indices, the presence of free trade agreements, and the level of trade barriers, have fundamentally influenced the optimization of export efficiency. A spatial analysis of efficiency further reveals significant differences across export destinations. Neighboring countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan achieved high efficiency levels (above 0.80), contrasting sharply with more distant countries or those experiencing political instability, which demonstrated more limited efficiency. Furthermore, the temporal analysis showed that economic sanctions during the 2012–2015 period, peaking at an inefficiency of 0.34, had the most destructive impact on export performance. These empirical findings collectively emphasize the necessity of developing regional integration strategies, diversifying trade networks, and strengthening institutional infrastructures to fully realize Iran's potential export capabilities in the dairy sector.</p>

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Export performance and determinants of dairy product trade in Iran: evidence from a Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月20日

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  • Afshin Miranzadeh Mahabadi,
  • Roya Eshraghi Samani,
  • Bita Rahimi Badr,
  • Hamed Rafiei

摘要

International trade is a fundamental driver of economic growth and a key source of foreign exchange diversification in modern economies. Within this context, the export of dairy products offers substantial potential for Iran’s economy to leverage international trade opportunities. This research comprehensively evaluates the export performance of Iran's dairy products and identifies the determining patterns of trade performance, with a specific focus on quantifying the gap between actual performance and potential export capacity in target markets. To achieve this, the analytical framework of the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model (SFGM) was employed. The analysis was based on comprehensive panel data from 27 countries importing Iran’s dairy products during the 2002–2023 period. The research findings indicate a significant impact of the fundamental variables of the gravity model. Specifically, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Iran (with a coefficient of + 0.52) and that of destination countries (+ 0.45), alongside the deterrent effect of geographical distance (-0.81), play pivotal roles in determining trade patterns. Beyond these classic factors, institutional variables, including economic freedom indices, the presence of free trade agreements, and the level of trade barriers, have fundamentally influenced the optimization of export efficiency. A spatial analysis of efficiency further reveals significant differences across export destinations. Neighboring countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan achieved high efficiency levels (above 0.80), contrasting sharply with more distant countries or those experiencing political instability, which demonstrated more limited efficiency. Furthermore, the temporal analysis showed that economic sanctions during the 2012–2015 period, peaking at an inefficiency of 0.34, had the most destructive impact on export performance. These empirical findings collectively emphasize the necessity of developing regional integration strategies, diversifying trade networks, and strengthening institutional infrastructures to fully realize Iran's potential export capabilities in the dairy sector.