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Background <p>The rapid expansion of extreme thermal zones in hyper-urbanized regions is reshaping the urban social ecosystem, but the mechanism behind it is still not fully understood. This study examines the evolution of the thermal environment in western Shenzhen from 1991 to 2022. Using Landsat multi-source sensor time series and the Local Contour Tree Algorithm (LCTA), we identify hierarchical Heat Cores (HCs) and Cold Cores (CCs) from continuous thermal surfaces, so as to more effectively capture the nested spatial structure of urban thermal anomalies.</p> Results <p>The results showed that there was a significant difference in the evolution of HCs and CCs. Rather than expanding linearly, HCs had undergone an evolutionary trajectory of fragmentation–expansion–aggregation, and showed a significant trend of northward movement, which was highly consistent with anthropogenic displacement. In contrast, CCs showed stronger ecological resilience and maintained a relatively stable state despite drastic reorganisation of urban structure. Analysis based on Random Forest (RF) and Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) further showed that the regulatory mechanism of the two had changed: HCs shifted from being influenced by socioeconomic factors in the early stage to being controlled by landscape-configuration in the later stage, while CCs were more constrained by stable biophysical conditions. We also identified a seasonal decoupling pattern: in summer, the influence of impervious surfaces (NDBI) and topography (DEM) was more significant, while in winter, hydrological regulation (MNDWI) played a stronger buffering role on CCs.</p> Conclusions <p>This study clarifies the socio-ecological processes underlying the evolution of urban thermal zones and shows the value of a topology-based framework for identifying their hierarchical organization and long-term spatiotemporal change. The findings support a shift from static zoning to dynamic, season-specific management. In practice, mitigation should focus on limiting impervious-surface expansion in heat-core areas while maintaining hydrological connectivity to sustain the cooling function of cold-core areas. These results provide a useful basis for climate-adaptive planning in high-density cities.</p>

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Decoding urban heat and cold cores: spatiotemporal evolution and multidimensional drivers in hyper-urbanized regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Feng Yue,
  • Chunguang Hu,
  • Shunwei Chen,
  • Hui Zeng

摘要

Background

The rapid expansion of extreme thermal zones in hyper-urbanized regions is reshaping the urban social ecosystem, but the mechanism behind it is still not fully understood. This study examines the evolution of the thermal environment in western Shenzhen from 1991 to 2022. Using Landsat multi-source sensor time series and the Local Contour Tree Algorithm (LCTA), we identify hierarchical Heat Cores (HCs) and Cold Cores (CCs) from continuous thermal surfaces, so as to more effectively capture the nested spatial structure of urban thermal anomalies.

Results

The results showed that there was a significant difference in the evolution of HCs and CCs. Rather than expanding linearly, HCs had undergone an evolutionary trajectory of fragmentation–expansion–aggregation, and showed a significant trend of northward movement, which was highly consistent with anthropogenic displacement. In contrast, CCs showed stronger ecological resilience and maintained a relatively stable state despite drastic reorganisation of urban structure. Analysis based on Random Forest (RF) and Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) further showed that the regulatory mechanism of the two had changed: HCs shifted from being influenced by socioeconomic factors in the early stage to being controlled by landscape-configuration in the later stage, while CCs were more constrained by stable biophysical conditions. We also identified a seasonal decoupling pattern: in summer, the influence of impervious surfaces (NDBI) and topography (DEM) was more significant, while in winter, hydrological regulation (MNDWI) played a stronger buffering role on CCs.

Conclusions

This study clarifies the socio-ecological processes underlying the evolution of urban thermal zones and shows the value of a topology-based framework for identifying their hierarchical organization and long-term spatiotemporal change. The findings support a shift from static zoning to dynamic, season-specific management. In practice, mitigation should focus on limiting impervious-surface expansion in heat-core areas while maintaining hydrological connectivity to sustain the cooling function of cold-core areas. These results provide a useful basis for climate-adaptive planning in high-density cities.