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Aims <p>This study aims to analyze the global cancer burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), and to predict disease burden trends over the next decade.</p> Methods <p>Through systematic processing and statistical analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, we analyzed the temporal trends in HFPG-attributable cancer burden and its disparities across geographical regions, economic regions, sex, and age groups.We projected the burden for the period 2022–2031 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.</p> Results <p>Globally, the cancer burden attributable to HFPG demonstrated a consistent upward trend from 1990 to 2021. In 2021, cancer mortality attributable to HFPG reached 328,309, representing a 195% increase from the 1990 of 111,322. Within the five SDI regions, high SDI regions exhibited the greatest disease burden. Additionally, men, middle-aged, and elderly people are more severely affected. Finally, the burden of most cancers is projected to continue to rise over the next decade.</p> Conclusions <p>The study revealed a significant increasing trend in the HFPG-attributable cancer burden over the past thirty-two years. Furthermore, the cancer burden attributable to HFPG is projected to continue increasing over the next decade. It is crucial to develop targeted, tiered prevention strategies.</p>

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Global burden of cancers attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2021 and projections until 2031

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月13日

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  • Xianglin Zhu,
  • Lang Wang,
  • Hao Liang,
  • Jie Zhang,
  • Shijun Zhao,
  • Cheng Zhao,
  • Dehai Wang,
  • Yinlu Ding

摘要

Aims

This study aims to analyze the global cancer burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), and to predict disease burden trends over the next decade.

Methods

Through systematic processing and statistical analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, we analyzed the temporal trends in HFPG-attributable cancer burden and its disparities across geographical regions, economic regions, sex, and age groups.We projected the burden for the period 2022–2031 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.

Results

Globally, the cancer burden attributable to HFPG demonstrated a consistent upward trend from 1990 to 2021. In 2021, cancer mortality attributable to HFPG reached 328,309, representing a 195% increase from the 1990 of 111,322. Within the five SDI regions, high SDI regions exhibited the greatest disease burden. Additionally, men, middle-aged, and elderly people are more severely affected. Finally, the burden of most cancers is projected to continue to rise over the next decade.

Conclusions

The study revealed a significant increasing trend in the HFPG-attributable cancer burden over the past thirty-two years. Furthermore, the cancer burden attributable to HFPG is projected to continue increasing over the next decade. It is crucial to develop targeted, tiered prevention strategies.