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Background <p>Breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), considered a non-obligate precursor to invasive breast cancer, has been widely studied; however, trends in death rate from DCIS remain undocumented.</p> Methods <p>To examine the trend in death rate from DCIS among women (age at death, 40 + years) in the US, we quantified annual percent changes (APCs) and average APCs in age-standardized death rates using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) 8 incidence-based mortality database and Joinpoint regression. The trend was quantified from 2000 to 2021, capturing deaths among women diagnosed between 1975 and 2021 and allowing for a 25-year follow-back period before each death year. Additionally, we employed the SEER 12 to assess disparities in death rates from DCIS by race and ethnicity during 2017–2021, based on diagnoses from 1992–2021. Trends in death rates from invasive breast cancer were analysed similarly.</p> Results <p>Death rate from DCIS increased by 2.43% annually (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.34–3.54) from 2000–2015, and then plateaued, leading to an overall statistically non-significant increase from 2000–2021 (1.01% per year; 95%CI = -0.20–2.24). This trend was in stark contrast with an average of 1.61% annual decrease in death rates for invasive breast cancer (95%CI = -1.95 to -1.27). From 2016–2021, death rate from DCIS was 87% higher among non-Hispanic Black women than non-Hispanic White women (2.98 vs 1.60 per 100,000), a relatively larger disparity than the 39% estimated for death rate from invasive cancer (55.96 vs 40.28 per 100,000).</p> Conclusions <p>Distinct epidemiologic patterns in death rates between DCIS and invasive breast cancer highlight important implications for understanding the natural history and management of these malignancies.</p>

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Trends in breast cancer death rates from ductal carcinoma in situ versus invasive cancer in the United States

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月26日

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  • Hyuna Sung,
  • Chenxi Jiang,
  • Ismail Jatoi,
  • Ahmedin Jemal

摘要

Background

Breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), considered a non-obligate precursor to invasive breast cancer, has been widely studied; however, trends in death rate from DCIS remain undocumented.

Methods

To examine the trend in death rate from DCIS among women (age at death, 40 + years) in the US, we quantified annual percent changes (APCs) and average APCs in age-standardized death rates using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) 8 incidence-based mortality database and Joinpoint regression. The trend was quantified from 2000 to 2021, capturing deaths among women diagnosed between 1975 and 2021 and allowing for a 25-year follow-back period before each death year. Additionally, we employed the SEER 12 to assess disparities in death rates from DCIS by race and ethnicity during 2017–2021, based on diagnoses from 1992–2021. Trends in death rates from invasive breast cancer were analysed similarly.

Results

Death rate from DCIS increased by 2.43% annually (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.34–3.54) from 2000–2015, and then plateaued, leading to an overall statistically non-significant increase from 2000–2021 (1.01% per year; 95%CI = -0.20–2.24). This trend was in stark contrast with an average of 1.61% annual decrease in death rates for invasive breast cancer (95%CI = -1.95 to -1.27). From 2016–2021, death rate from DCIS was 87% higher among non-Hispanic Black women than non-Hispanic White women (2.98 vs 1.60 per 100,000), a relatively larger disparity than the 39% estimated for death rate from invasive cancer (55.96 vs 40.28 per 100,000).

Conclusions

Distinct epidemiologic patterns in death rates between DCIS and invasive breast cancer highlight important implications for understanding the natural history and management of these malignancies.