<p>Dengue fever has emerged as a significant global health threat in recentdecades, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. Transmitted primarily bythe Aedes aegypti mosquito, dengue spreads rapidly in densely populated areas,particularly where water stagnation and inadequate sanitation prevail. In manydeveloping nations, dengue contributes to rising morbidity and mortality, especiallyamong children and young adults, placing a heavy burden on healthcare systems andeconomies. The recurrent outbreaks and lack of specific antiviral treatment havedriven substantial interest in the mathematical modelling and analysis of denguedynamics and control strategies. To address this issue, our study presents anonlinear dynamical system with two exponential time delays to examine denguedynamics, with particular attention to its transmission behaviors, associated riskfactors, and possible long-term impacts. This study presents a host-vector structurethat includes time delay in human infection. The framework is then extended toaccount for delays in both human and mosquito dynamics. Mathematical analysis isconducted to derive the basic reproduction number and examine the stability ofdisease-free (DFE) and endemic equilibria (EE) for both cases. Sensitivity analysisis also performed to investigate how the model parameters with both time delaysinfluence dengue disease transmission and spread in a population. Numericalsimulations highlight the significant impact of delays on infection peaks and showthat they reduce disease prevalence when implemented effectively. The resultsemphasize that combining time-delay intervention policies provides a more effectiveapproach for dengue mitigation, offering valuable guidance for public health,specifically in the Malaysian sector and similar tropical and subtropicalregions.</p>

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Stepwise development and mathematical analysis of delayed dengue transmission models with control strategies

  • Shah Zeb,
  • Siti Ainor Mohd Yatim,
  • Muhammad Rafiq,
  • Ali Raza,
  • Marek Lampart,
  • Ayesha Kamran

摘要

Dengue fever has emerged as a significant global health threat in recentdecades, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. Transmitted primarily bythe Aedes aegypti mosquito, dengue spreads rapidly in densely populated areas,particularly where water stagnation and inadequate sanitation prevail. In manydeveloping nations, dengue contributes to rising morbidity and mortality, especiallyamong children and young adults, placing a heavy burden on healthcare systems andeconomies. The recurrent outbreaks and lack of specific antiviral treatment havedriven substantial interest in the mathematical modelling and analysis of denguedynamics and control strategies. To address this issue, our study presents anonlinear dynamical system with two exponential time delays to examine denguedynamics, with particular attention to its transmission behaviors, associated riskfactors, and possible long-term impacts. This study presents a host-vector structurethat includes time delay in human infection. The framework is then extended toaccount for delays in both human and mosquito dynamics. Mathematical analysis isconducted to derive the basic reproduction number and examine the stability ofdisease-free (DFE) and endemic equilibria (EE) for both cases. Sensitivity analysisis also performed to investigate how the model parameters with both time delaysinfluence dengue disease transmission and spread in a population. Numericalsimulations highlight the significant impact of delays on infection peaks and showthat they reduce disease prevalence when implemented effectively. The resultsemphasize that combining time-delay intervention policies provides a more effectiveapproach for dengue mitigation, offering valuable guidance for public health,specifically in the Malaysian sector and similar tropical and subtropicalregions.