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Background <p>The relationship between kidney function and mortality in centenarians, particularly with respect to hormonal regulation, remains unclear. This study investigated the association between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and all-cause mortality in female centenarians and explored the potential role of testosterone.</p> Methods <p>Within the China Hainan Centenarian Cohort Study, 701 female centenarians (median age: 102 years) were enrolled. eGFR was calculated using the CKD-EPI 2009 creatinine equation. Restricted cubic splines (RCSs) and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were employed to assess nonlinear associations. Likelihood ratio tests were used to evaluate the interaction effect of testosterone.</p> Results <p>During a median follow-up of 31 months, 643 participants (91.7%) died. RCS analysis revealed a significant nonlinear association (P-overall &lt; 0.001; P-nonlinear = 0.004) between eGFR and all-cause mortality, characterized by a U-shaped curve, with an inflection point of 60.65 mL/min/1.73&#xa0;m² identified in the adjusted RCS model. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analysis showed that each 10-mL/min/1.73&#xa0;m² increase in eGFR was associated with a 6.8% reduction in all-cause mortality risk (hazard ratio = 0.932, 95% confidence interval: 0.882–0.985, <i>P</i> = 0.012). Compared with centenarians with eGFRs of 45–&lt;60 mL/min/1.73&#xa0;m², those with eGFRs of ≤ 45 mL/min/1.73&#xa0;m² had a 44.9% increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.449, 95% confidence interval: 1.176–1.785, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001) and a significantly shorter median survival time (26 months vs. 34 months, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001). Higher testosterone levels attenuated the association between eGFR and all-cause mortality, indicating a protective effect (P for multivariable nonlinear interaction = 0.022).</p> Conclusion <p>In female centenarians, lower eGFR (&lt; 45 mL/min/1.73&#xa0;m²) is independently associated with all-cause mortality, and this association is modified by serum testosterone levels. These findings highlight testosterone as a potential modulator of the kidney function–mortality relationship in centenarians, although the causal relationship requires further investigation.</p>

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Testosterone modifies U-Shaped association of eGFR with all-cause mortality in Chinese female centenarians: a prospective cohort study

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月28日

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  • Zehao Zhang,
  • Xiaowei Cheng,
  • Zeyu Qu,
  • Yue Niu,
  • Zhe Feng,
  • Weiguang Zhang,
  • Ding Sun,
  • Hao Li,
  • Qiushi Wang,
  • Miao Liu,
  • Yali Zhao,
  • Yao He,
  • Guangyan Cai,
  • Xiangmei Chen,
  • Bin Wang,
  • Yizhi Chen

摘要

Background

The relationship between kidney function and mortality in centenarians, particularly with respect to hormonal regulation, remains unclear. This study investigated the association between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and all-cause mortality in female centenarians and explored the potential role of testosterone.

Methods

Within the China Hainan Centenarian Cohort Study, 701 female centenarians (median age: 102 years) were enrolled. eGFR was calculated using the CKD-EPI 2009 creatinine equation. Restricted cubic splines (RCSs) and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were employed to assess nonlinear associations. Likelihood ratio tests were used to evaluate the interaction effect of testosterone.

Results

During a median follow-up of 31 months, 643 participants (91.7%) died. RCS analysis revealed a significant nonlinear association (P-overall < 0.001; P-nonlinear = 0.004) between eGFR and all-cause mortality, characterized by a U-shaped curve, with an inflection point of 60.65 mL/min/1.73 m² identified in the adjusted RCS model. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analysis showed that each 10-mL/min/1.73 m² increase in eGFR was associated with a 6.8% reduction in all-cause mortality risk (hazard ratio = 0.932, 95% confidence interval: 0.882–0.985, P = 0.012). Compared with centenarians with eGFRs of 45–<60 mL/min/1.73 m², those with eGFRs of ≤ 45 mL/min/1.73 m² had a 44.9% increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.449, 95% confidence interval: 1.176–1.785, P < 0.001) and a significantly shorter median survival time (26 months vs. 34 months, P < 0.001). Higher testosterone levels attenuated the association between eGFR and all-cause mortality, indicating a protective effect (P for multivariable nonlinear interaction = 0.022).

Conclusion

In female centenarians, lower eGFR (< 45 mL/min/1.73 m²) is independently associated with all-cause mortality, and this association is modified by serum testosterone levels. These findings highlight testosterone as a potential modulator of the kidney function–mortality relationship in centenarians, although the causal relationship requires further investigation.