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Background <p>Malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five in Nigeria, with pronounced subnational disparities. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial inequalities in malaria incidence and mortality among children aged 0–4&#xa0;years across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory from 2010 to 2019.</p> Methods <p>Estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) were analyzed using the WHO Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (HEAT). Subnational inequalities were quantified using five metrics: coefficient of variation (COV), difference (D), ratio (R), population-attributable risk (PAR), and population-attributable fraction (PAF).</p> Results <p>From 2010 to 2019, national malaria incidence declined from 103 to 74.5 cases (27.7% reduction), while mortality fell from 477.3 to 237.6 deaths per 100,000 (50.2% reduction). However, progress was uneven. Northern states such as Zamfara, Kano, and Katsina had the highest baseline burden in 2010 (incidence &gt; 150 per 1000; mortality &gt; 700 per 100,000) and, despite declines, remained among the most affected in 2019. Southern states including Lagos, Delta, and Anambra consistently recorded lower burdens (incidence &lt; 60 per 1000; mortality &lt; 300 per 100,000). Subnational inequality narrowed over time, with incidence COV peaking at 46.3% in 2013 before falling to 28.1% in 2019, and mortality COV declining from a 2013 peak of 42.9% to 22.3% in 2019.</p> Conclusion <p>Nigeria’s malaria incidence and mortality among under-five children have decreased, but subnational disparities persist, particularly in northern states, although a reduction in D and R values indicates modest progress in equity, necessitating geographically targeted interventions.</p>

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Spatial and temporal inequalities in malaria incidence and mortality among children aged 0–4 years in Nigeria: a subnational analysis, 2010–2019

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月2日

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  • Tolutope Adebimpe Oso,
  • Olalekan John Okesanya,
  • Uthman Okikiola Adebayo,
  • Oluwatobi Babajide Ayelaagbe,
  • Mohamed Mustaf Ahmed,
  • Khalifat Boluwatife Obadeyi,
  • Gilbert Eshun,
  • Olanrewaju Mustapha Saliu,
  • Don Eliseo Lucero-Prisno III

摘要

Background

Malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five in Nigeria, with pronounced subnational disparities. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial inequalities in malaria incidence and mortality among children aged 0–4 years across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory from 2010 to 2019.

Methods

Estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) were analyzed using the WHO Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (HEAT). Subnational inequalities were quantified using five metrics: coefficient of variation (COV), difference (D), ratio (R), population-attributable risk (PAR), and population-attributable fraction (PAF).

Results

From 2010 to 2019, national malaria incidence declined from 103 to 74.5 cases (27.7% reduction), while mortality fell from 477.3 to 237.6 deaths per 100,000 (50.2% reduction). However, progress was uneven. Northern states such as Zamfara, Kano, and Katsina had the highest baseline burden in 2010 (incidence > 150 per 1000; mortality > 700 per 100,000) and, despite declines, remained among the most affected in 2019. Southern states including Lagos, Delta, and Anambra consistently recorded lower burdens (incidence < 60 per 1000; mortality < 300 per 100,000). Subnational inequality narrowed over time, with incidence COV peaking at 46.3% in 2013 before falling to 28.1% in 2019, and mortality COV declining from a 2013 peak of 42.9% to 22.3% in 2019.

Conclusion

Nigeria’s malaria incidence and mortality among under-five children have decreased, but subnational disparities persist, particularly in northern states, although a reduction in D and R values indicates modest progress in equity, necessitating geographically targeted interventions.