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Background <p>The last malaria cases in near-elimination settings are often found in international border regions due to the presence of hard-to-reach populations, conflict, uneven intervention coverage, and human migration. Test-and-treat border posts are an under-researched form of active case detection used to interrupt transmission chains between countries.</p> Methods <p>An individual-based, mathematical metapopulation model of <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> was used to estimate the effectiveness of border screening posts on total cases in malaria-endemic sub-Saharan Africa.</p> Results <p>The implementation of international border posts across 401 sub-national administrative units would avert a median of 7173 (IQR 1075 to 23,550) cases per unit over a 10&#xa0;year period and reduce <i>Pf</i>PR<sub>2-10</sub> by a median of 0.21% (IQR 0.04 to 0.44%).</p> Conclusions <p>Border posts were most effective in low-transmission settings with high-transmission neighbours. Border posts alone in sub-Saharan Africa will not allow a country to reach elimination, particularly when considering feasibility and acceptability, but could contribute to broader control packages to targeted populations.</p>

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Estimating the potential impact of surveillance test-and-treat posts to reduce malaria in border regions in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月18日

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  • Hillary M. Topazian,
  • Giovanni D. Charles,
  • Nora Schmit,
  • Matteo Pianella,
  • John M. Marshall,
  • Immo Kleinschmidt,
  • Katharina Hauck,
  • Azra C. Ghani

摘要

Background

The last malaria cases in near-elimination settings are often found in international border regions due to the presence of hard-to-reach populations, conflict, uneven intervention coverage, and human migration. Test-and-treat border posts are an under-researched form of active case detection used to interrupt transmission chains between countries.

Methods

An individual-based, mathematical metapopulation model of Plasmodium falciparum was used to estimate the effectiveness of border screening posts on total cases in malaria-endemic sub-Saharan Africa.

Results

The implementation of international border posts across 401 sub-national administrative units would avert a median of 7173 (IQR 1075 to 23,550) cases per unit over a 10 year period and reduce PfPR2-10 by a median of 0.21% (IQR 0.04 to 0.44%).

Conclusions

Border posts were most effective in low-transmission settings with high-transmission neighbours. Border posts alone in sub-Saharan Africa will not allow a country to reach elimination, particularly when considering feasibility and acceptability, but could contribute to broader control packages to targeted populations.