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Background <p>Postoperative hypotension (POH) is a common and serious complication in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) undergoing non‑cardiac surgery, yet predictive tools tailored to this high‑risk population remain scarce.</p> Methods <p>This single‑center cohort study developed and validated a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of postoperative hypotension (POH) occurring during the post‑anaesthesia care unit (PACU) stay, defined as systolic blood pressure &lt; 90 mmHg after leaving the operating theatre and before transfer to the general ward, consistent with the Perioperative Quality Initiative (POQI) consensus. Data from 34,012 retrospective (2012–2022) and 10,528 prospective (2023–2025) T2DM patients undergoing non‑cardiac surgery were used. Following rigorous preprocessing and a four‑step feature selection, 13 predictors were retained. Fourteen ML models were trained and evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and calibration. Model interpretability was enhanced using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).</p> Results <p>Random Forest achieved the best overall performance, with AUCs of 0.843 (95% CI 0.837–0.849) on training, 0.854 (95% CI 0.848–0.860) on internal validation, and 0.847 (95% CI 0.840–0.854) on prospective validation. External validation on an independent hospital cohort (<i>n</i> = 2156) yielded an AUC of 0.822 (95% CI 0.805–0.839), confirming generalisability. It demonstrated high sensitivity (0.932) and reliable calibration. SHAP analysis identified intraoperative blood loss, age, heart failure, obstructive sleep apnoea, and body mass index as the top predictors, providing transparent global and local explanations for individual risk.</p> Conclusion <p>An interpretable ML model based on routinely collected clinical data accurately predicts POH risk in T2DM patients after non‑cardiac surgery. The model combines strong discriminative performance with clinical explainability, suggesting its potential as a practical tool for preoperative risk stratification and personalized postoperative monitoring in T2DM patients within similar clinical settings.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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An interpretable machine learning model for predicting postoperative hypotension in type 2 diabetes mellitus undergoing non‑cardiac surgery

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Yu Gao,
  • Guojiang Yin,
  • Zheng Qi,
  • Xiaoyang Song,
  • Xiang Zhou,
  • Kun Li

摘要

Background

Postoperative hypotension (POH) is a common and serious complication in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) undergoing non‑cardiac surgery, yet predictive tools tailored to this high‑risk population remain scarce.

Methods

This single‑center cohort study developed and validated a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of postoperative hypotension (POH) occurring during the post‑anaesthesia care unit (PACU) stay, defined as systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg after leaving the operating theatre and before transfer to the general ward, consistent with the Perioperative Quality Initiative (POQI) consensus. Data from 34,012 retrospective (2012–2022) and 10,528 prospective (2023–2025) T2DM patients undergoing non‑cardiac surgery were used. Following rigorous preprocessing and a four‑step feature selection, 13 predictors were retained. Fourteen ML models were trained and evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and calibration. Model interpretability was enhanced using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

Results

Random Forest achieved the best overall performance, with AUCs of 0.843 (95% CI 0.837–0.849) on training, 0.854 (95% CI 0.848–0.860) on internal validation, and 0.847 (95% CI 0.840–0.854) on prospective validation. External validation on an independent hospital cohort (n = 2156) yielded an AUC of 0.822 (95% CI 0.805–0.839), confirming generalisability. It demonstrated high sensitivity (0.932) and reliable calibration. SHAP analysis identified intraoperative blood loss, age, heart failure, obstructive sleep apnoea, and body mass index as the top predictors, providing transparent global and local explanations for individual risk.

Conclusion

An interpretable ML model based on routinely collected clinical data accurately predicts POH risk in T2DM patients after non‑cardiac surgery. The model combines strong discriminative performance with clinical explainability, suggesting its potential as a practical tool for preoperative risk stratification and personalized postoperative monitoring in T2DM patients within similar clinical settings.

Graphical abstract