Background <p>Surface water is a major source of domestic water supply in China, yet its quality remains uneven despite recent improvements. Chronic exposure to surface-water pollution has been implicated in liver injury, but evidence linking water quality to cirrhosis mortality—particularly accounting for delayed and non-linear effects—remains limited. We investigated the spatiotemporal associations between surface water quality and cirrhosis mortality in China.</p> Methods <p>We conducted a nationwide ecological study integrating surface water monitoring data and cirrhosis mortality data from 2013 to 2021. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) were applied to assess non-linear and lagged associations (0-2 years) between overall water-quality classes and key pollution indicators, including total phosphorus (TP), chemical oxygen demand, dichromate method (COD<sub>Cr</sub>), and five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD<sub>5</sub>). Analyses were stratified by sex and urban-rural residence.</p> Results <p>Surface water quality was associated with cirrhosis mortality in a non-linear, delayed, and population-specific manner. Moderate and poor water quality exhibited distinct temporal risk patterns, with sustained exposure to moderate pollution associated with a higher cumulative mortality risk. TP and COD<sub>Cr</sub> showed clear non-linear associations with mortality that intensified at longer lags, whereas BOD<sub>5</sub> displayed a U-shaped relationship with relative risks remaining below unity. Stronger and more persistent effects were observed among males and rural residents.</p> Conclusions <p>Our findings indicate that long-term exposure to moderate surface-water pollution and persistent nutrient and organic contamination contribute to cirrhosis mortality in China. Water-quality management strategies should account for delayed health effects and population vulnerability, with targeted interventions prioritising sustained pollution reduction and protection of high-risk groups.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Spatiotemporal lag effects of surface water quality on liver cirrhosis mortality risk in China: a nine-year time-series study of environmental driving mechanism

  • Qiuping Chen,
  • Quan Sun,
  • Mingyi Shao

摘要

Background

Surface water is a major source of domestic water supply in China, yet its quality remains uneven despite recent improvements. Chronic exposure to surface-water pollution has been implicated in liver injury, but evidence linking water quality to cirrhosis mortality—particularly accounting for delayed and non-linear effects—remains limited. We investigated the spatiotemporal associations between surface water quality and cirrhosis mortality in China.

Methods

We conducted a nationwide ecological study integrating surface water monitoring data and cirrhosis mortality data from 2013 to 2021. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) were applied to assess non-linear and lagged associations (0-2 years) between overall water-quality classes and key pollution indicators, including total phosphorus (TP), chemical oxygen demand, dichromate method (CODCr), and five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5). Analyses were stratified by sex and urban-rural residence.

Results

Surface water quality was associated with cirrhosis mortality in a non-linear, delayed, and population-specific manner. Moderate and poor water quality exhibited distinct temporal risk patterns, with sustained exposure to moderate pollution associated with a higher cumulative mortality risk. TP and CODCr showed clear non-linear associations with mortality that intensified at longer lags, whereas BOD5 displayed a U-shaped relationship with relative risks remaining below unity. Stronger and more persistent effects were observed among males and rural residents.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that long-term exposure to moderate surface-water pollution and persistent nutrient and organic contamination contribute to cirrhosis mortality in China. Water-quality management strategies should account for delayed health effects and population vulnerability, with targeted interventions prioritising sustained pollution reduction and protection of high-risk groups.

Graphical Abstract