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Background <p>Amid rising diabetes prevalence, the burden of diabetes-related chronic kidney disease (DKD) is escalating, particularly in China. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological trends of DKD in China and develop a Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model to predict its incidence from 2022 to 2036.</p> Methods <p>Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) were used to assess DKD’s burden in China between 1990 and 2021, including age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). BAPC models were applied to evaluate age, period, and cohort effects and to project future trends.</p> Results <p>Between 1990 and 2021, the ASIR for chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 1 (DKD1) decreased (annual percent change (APC) = -0.57, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001), while ASPR increased (APC = 1.25, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001). ASMR and DALYs both declined (APC = -1.98, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001; APC = -1.99, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001). For chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 2 (DKD2), ASIR slightly increased (APC = 0.44, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001), but both ASPR and ASMR decreased (APC = -0.23, <i>P</i> = 0.004; APC = -0.56, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001). Projections suggest an increase in DKD2 incidence and declining incidence for DKD1 by 2036.</p> Conclusions <p>This study provides insights into the trends of DKD burden in China over the past three decades. The BAPC offers a reliable forecast for the next 15 years, aiding future research to reduce DKD’s impact in China.</p>

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The burden of diabetes nephropathy in China from 1990 to 2021, with forecast to 2036: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月22日

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  • Yuegui Wang,
  • Junyan Wu,
  • Haiquan He,
  • Qiuting Yang,
  • Haolin Shen

摘要

Background

Amid rising diabetes prevalence, the burden of diabetes-related chronic kidney disease (DKD) is escalating, particularly in China. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological trends of DKD in China and develop a Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model to predict its incidence from 2022 to 2036.

Methods

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) were used to assess DKD’s burden in China between 1990 and 2021, including age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). BAPC models were applied to evaluate age, period, and cohort effects and to project future trends.

Results

Between 1990 and 2021, the ASIR for chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 1 (DKD1) decreased (annual percent change (APC) = -0.57, P < 0.001), while ASPR increased (APC = 1.25, P < 0.001). ASMR and DALYs both declined (APC = -1.98, P < 0.001; APC = -1.99, P < 0.001). For chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 2 (DKD2), ASIR slightly increased (APC = 0.44, P < 0.001), but both ASPR and ASMR decreased (APC = -0.23, P = 0.004; APC = -0.56, P < 0.001). Projections suggest an increase in DKD2 incidence and declining incidence for DKD1 by 2036.

Conclusions

This study provides insights into the trends of DKD burden in China over the past three decades. The BAPC offers a reliable forecast for the next 15 years, aiding future research to reduce DKD’s impact in China.