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Background <p>Few studies have focused on the descriptive epidemiology and trends of HIV/AIDS since the publication of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2021. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the trends and patterns of the HIV/AIDS burden at the global, regional, and national levels by sex, age and social development index (SDI). We also explored risk factors and predicted the GBD of HIV/AIDS until 2030.</p> Methods <p>Data on the etiology of HIV/AIDS from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the 2021 GBD database. Estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess temporal trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate (ASDR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of HIV/AIDS patients. Measures categorized by sex, region, age and SDI quintiles. In addition, an age‒period‒cohort model was established to forecast future trends of the HIV/AIDS burden to 2030.</p> Results <p>Globally, the incidence of HIV/AIDS reached 1.65&#xa0;million (95% uncertainty interval 1.48 to 1.82) in 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the global ASIR of HIV/AIDS showed a downward trend, with an EAPC of 0.14% (0.12–0.16%). The ASIR, ASDR, and ASMR of HIV/AIDS were highest in the low-SDI region and lowest in the high-SDI region. Regionally, southern sub-Saharan Africa had the highest ASIR in 2021, whereas Oceania had the largest increase in the ASIR from 1990 to 2021. Burundi (EAPC 14.04%, 95% CI -13.63 to -14.44%), followed by Burkina Faso, exhibited the most significant decrease in the ASIR. Globally, the highest incidence rate was observed in the 25–29 years old group. Unsafe sex is the primary factor leading to the burden of HIV/AIDS. By 2030, the global ASIR, ASDR and ASMR of HIV/AIDS are expected to gradually decrease.</p> Conclusion <p>HIV/AIDS disease burden varies by region, sex, and age. The global burden of HIV/AIDS is substantial in low-income regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our study offers valuable epidemiological evidence for future research on the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS.</p>

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Global and regional disease burden of HIV/AIDS from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2030

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月24日

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  • Youwang Lu,
  • Huiqin Li,
  • Rongjing Dong,
  • Mi Zhang,
  • Xingqi Dong,
  • Cuixian Yang,
  • Xicheng Wang,
  • Junchuan Ye

摘要

Background

Few studies have focused on the descriptive epidemiology and trends of HIV/AIDS since the publication of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2021. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the trends and patterns of the HIV/AIDS burden at the global, regional, and national levels by sex, age and social development index (SDI). We also explored risk factors and predicted the GBD of HIV/AIDS until 2030.

Methods

Data on the etiology of HIV/AIDS from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the 2021 GBD database. Estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess temporal trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate (ASDR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of HIV/AIDS patients. Measures categorized by sex, region, age and SDI quintiles. In addition, an age‒period‒cohort model was established to forecast future trends of the HIV/AIDS burden to 2030.

Results

Globally, the incidence of HIV/AIDS reached 1.65 million (95% uncertainty interval 1.48 to 1.82) in 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the global ASIR of HIV/AIDS showed a downward trend, with an EAPC of 0.14% (0.12–0.16%). The ASIR, ASDR, and ASMR of HIV/AIDS were highest in the low-SDI region and lowest in the high-SDI region. Regionally, southern sub-Saharan Africa had the highest ASIR in 2021, whereas Oceania had the largest increase in the ASIR from 1990 to 2021. Burundi (EAPC 14.04%, 95% CI -13.63 to -14.44%), followed by Burkina Faso, exhibited the most significant decrease in the ASIR. Globally, the highest incidence rate was observed in the 25–29 years old group. Unsafe sex is the primary factor leading to the burden of HIV/AIDS. By 2030, the global ASIR, ASDR and ASMR of HIV/AIDS are expected to gradually decrease.

Conclusion

HIV/AIDS disease burden varies by region, sex, and age. The global burden of HIV/AIDS is substantial in low-income regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our study offers valuable epidemiological evidence for future research on the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS.