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<p>Malaria poses a significant public health risk worldwide, and the infection results from the bite of an infected female <i>Anopheles</i> mosquito. Many malaria-endemic regions face instability, often driven by wars, heightening the risk of infectious disease transmission. Malaria funding and targeted prevention are essential for reducing and eventually eradicating transmission. This article focuses on developing a compartmental mathematical model to study malaria infection dynamics, incorporating the effects of malaria prevention, funding, and war on health systems. We evaluate the model’s basic reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"><EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal{R}_{0}\)</EquationSource></InlineEquation> and identify equilibrium points. Our model analysis provides a forward bifurcation, indicating that malaria can be controlled if <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"><EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal{R}_{0} &lt; 1\)</EquationSource></InlineEquation>, and we show cases of backward bifurcation when the threshold <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"><EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal{R}_{c} &lt; 1\)</EquationSource></InlineEquation>. We fit our model to the collected data and perform a sensitivity analysis of <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"><EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal{R}_{0}\)</EquationSource></InlineEquation> and numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that increased funding and effective prevention reduce malaria transmission, whereas war leads to higher transmission rates. We also offer strategies to minimize malaria spread during armed conflict.</p>

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Modeling the impact of war, interventions, and funding on malaria transmission dynamics in Sudan

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月26日

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  • Mohamed Salah Alhaj,
  • Farai Nyabadza

摘要

Malaria poses a significant public health risk worldwide, and the infection results from the bite of an infected female Anopheles mosquito. Many malaria-endemic regions face instability, often driven by wars, heightening the risk of infectious disease transmission. Malaria funding and targeted prevention are essential for reducing and eventually eradicating transmission. This article focuses on developing a compartmental mathematical model to study malaria infection dynamics, incorporating the effects of malaria prevention, funding, and war on health systems. We evaluate the model’s basic reproduction number \(\mathcal{R}_{0}\) and identify equilibrium points. Our model analysis provides a forward bifurcation, indicating that malaria can be controlled if \(\mathcal{R}_{0} < 1\), and we show cases of backward bifurcation when the threshold \(\mathcal{R}_{c} < 1\). We fit our model to the collected data and perform a sensitivity analysis of \(\mathcal{R}_{0}\) and numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that increased funding and effective prevention reduce malaria transmission, whereas war leads to higher transmission rates. We also offer strategies to minimize malaria spread during armed conflict.