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Background <p>In 2025, Texas experienced its largest measles outbreak in decades, reporting 762 cases by mid-August. Measles is a highly contagious but vaccine-preventable infection transmitted mainly among unvaccinated individuals and capable of causing severe outcomes.</p> Methods <p>We investigate counterfactual measles control scenarios based on daycare and school closures and reactive vaccination of infants and children, including mixed interventions. We analyze the 2025 Texas outbreak using an age-structured multi-stage SEIR model formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations. The model is fit to case data using Bayesian inference to estimate the effective reproduction number and generate posterior predictive trajectories under alternative closure and vaccination scenarios.</p> Results <p>The effective reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"><EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_e\)</EquationSource></InlineEquation> was estimated to have a median of <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"><EquationSource Format="TEX">\(3.52\)</EquationSource></InlineEquation> with a 95% high density interval (HDI) of 2.1–5.4. Posterior predictive trajectories have medians that closely match the observed data in different age groups. A combined vaccination campaign and short-term closures could reduce the cases by up to 21%. The combined daycare and school closure produced the greatest marginal benefit during the first 7 weeks, after which the additional benefit declined rapidly, which shows diminishing returns. Reactive vaccination campaigns also exhibited diminishing marginal returns, with the number of additional averted cases decreasing nonlinearly with each <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"><EquationSource Format="TEX">\(0.1\%\)</EquationSource></InlineEquation> increase in vaccination rate, yielding small gains at higher vaccination levels.</p> Conclusions <p>The measles outbreak is probably due to decreased immunity levels in the affected counties. Implementing extended daycare and school closures, supplemented with a swift, reactive vaccination campaign, can be highly effective in containing the local measles outbreak.</p>

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The 2025 measles outbreak in Texas

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月30日

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  • Tamer Oraby,
  • Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah

摘要

Background

In 2025, Texas experienced its largest measles outbreak in decades, reporting 762 cases by mid-August. Measles is a highly contagious but vaccine-preventable infection transmitted mainly among unvaccinated individuals and capable of causing severe outcomes.

Methods

We investigate counterfactual measles control scenarios based on daycare and school closures and reactive vaccination of infants and children, including mixed interventions. We analyze the 2025 Texas outbreak using an age-structured multi-stage SEIR model formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations. The model is fit to case data using Bayesian inference to estimate the effective reproduction number and generate posterior predictive trajectories under alternative closure and vaccination scenarios.

Results

The effective reproduction number \(R_e\) was estimated to have a median of \(3.52\) with a 95% high density interval (HDI) of 2.1–5.4. Posterior predictive trajectories have medians that closely match the observed data in different age groups. A combined vaccination campaign and short-term closures could reduce the cases by up to 21%. The combined daycare and school closure produced the greatest marginal benefit during the first 7 weeks, after which the additional benefit declined rapidly, which shows diminishing returns. Reactive vaccination campaigns also exhibited diminishing marginal returns, with the number of additional averted cases decreasing nonlinearly with each \(0.1\%\) increase in vaccination rate, yielding small gains at higher vaccination levels.

Conclusions

The measles outbreak is probably due to decreased immunity levels in the affected counties. Implementing extended daycare and school closures, supplemented with a swift, reactive vaccination campaign, can be highly effective in containing the local measles outbreak.