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Background <p>Day-to-day variability in social contacts can shape transmission dynamics yet is rarely quantified. We aimed to quantify intraindividual variability (IIV) in non-household contacts during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany and to assess its associations with sociodemographic characteristics, vaccination, and policy stringency.</p> Methods <p>We analyzed longitudinal contact survey data with 33 waves between April 2020 and December 2021, including 7,845 participants and 59,462 observations. Pearson residuals from a mixed-effects negative binomial model were used to derive the within-person standard deviation (riSD) for participants with at least two observations, as a proxy of IIV. Gamma regression models with log link were fitted to estimate mean ratios (MR).</p> Results <p>Children and adolescents aged 0–17 years showed higher riSD than other age groups (MR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.09–1.16). Participants living in households with three or more members had higher riSD than those living alone (1.05, 95% CI 1.02–1.07). Retired individuals, homemakers, the unemployed, and students exhibited lower riSD than employed participants. Regarding COVID-19 vaccination, compared with the pre-vaccination window (− 100 to 0 days), riSD was higher in the post-vaccination window (1 to 100 days after the first COVID-19 vaccination dose) (1.13, 95% CI 1.06–1.20). Weaker policy stringency was strongly associated with higher riSD (1.36, 95% CI 1.32–1.39).</p> Conclusions <p>IIV in non-household contacts was shaped by age, household composition, employment status, vaccination status, and policy context. Analyses relying solely on average contact numbers may misrepresent transmission risk when contact behavior is highly variable. Incorporating IIV alongside mean contact levels may improve infectious disease models and inform public health policies.</p>

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Intraindividual variability in non-household contacts: a German longitudinal study, April 2020–December 2021

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月21日

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  • Chao Xu,
  • Aleksandr Bryzgalov,
  • Johannes Horn,
  • Andrzej K. Jarynowski,
  • Vitaly Belik,
  • Veronika K Jaeger,
  • André Karch,
  • Huynh Thi Phuong,
  • Janik Suer,
  • Marlli Zambrano,
  • Steven Schulz,
  • Alejandra Rincón Hidalgo,
  • Ashish Thampi,
  • Richard Pastor,
  • Rafael Mikolajczyk

摘要

Background

Day-to-day variability in social contacts can shape transmission dynamics yet is rarely quantified. We aimed to quantify intraindividual variability (IIV) in non-household contacts during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany and to assess its associations with sociodemographic characteristics, vaccination, and policy stringency.

Methods

We analyzed longitudinal contact survey data with 33 waves between April 2020 and December 2021, including 7,845 participants and 59,462 observations. Pearson residuals from a mixed-effects negative binomial model were used to derive the within-person standard deviation (riSD) for participants with at least two observations, as a proxy of IIV. Gamma regression models with log link were fitted to estimate mean ratios (MR).

Results

Children and adolescents aged 0–17 years showed higher riSD than other age groups (MR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.09–1.16). Participants living in households with three or more members had higher riSD than those living alone (1.05, 95% CI 1.02–1.07). Retired individuals, homemakers, the unemployed, and students exhibited lower riSD than employed participants. Regarding COVID-19 vaccination, compared with the pre-vaccination window (− 100 to 0 days), riSD was higher in the post-vaccination window (1 to 100 days after the first COVID-19 vaccination dose) (1.13, 95% CI 1.06–1.20). Weaker policy stringency was strongly associated with higher riSD (1.36, 95% CI 1.32–1.39).

Conclusions

IIV in non-household contacts was shaped by age, household composition, employment status, vaccination status, and policy context. Analyses relying solely on average contact numbers may misrepresent transmission risk when contact behavior is highly variable. Incorporating IIV alongside mean contact levels may improve infectious disease models and inform public health policies.