Scholarlink

Background <p>Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a growing global health concern, particularly among adults aged 20–49 years. However, comprehensive assessments of its burden in this demographic remain limited.</p> Methods <p>Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were analyzed, covering 204 countries from 1990 to 2021. Incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were examined, with results stratified by sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. Trend, decomposition, and inequality analyses were conducted, and future projections for 2022–2050 were generated using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.</p> Results <p> In 2021, NAFLD affected 48.31 million incident and 1.27 billion prevalent cases, causing 97,403 deaths and 2.67 million DALYs among adults aged 20–49. Both incidence and prevalence rose globally, with higher rates in males and the largest rises in middle-SDI countries, especially in Latin America and the Middle East. Forecasting models predict continued growth, especially among females, with a projected 60% increase in prevalence by 2050. Decomposition analysis showed that population growth was the primary driver, especially in middle and low-middle SDI regions, while epidemiological factors contributed more in high-SDI regions. Health inequality assessments revealed widening disparities, with the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) increasing, highlighting a greater burden in low-SDI countries. </p> Conclusion <p>NAFLD imposes a rising burden on adults aged 20-49 years globally, exacerbated by demographic shifts and socioeconomic disparities. Targeted interventions addressing obesity, metabolic health, and healthcare access are urgently required to mitigate this growing public health challenge.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Global, regional, and national burden of NAFLD in adults aged 20–49 years (1990–2021): a comprehensive analysis of trends, decomposition, and health inequality

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月5日

查看全文
  • Zixuan Zhong,
  • Minxuan Xu,
  • Xveyan Luo,
  • Jun Tan

摘要

Background

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a growing global health concern, particularly among adults aged 20–49 years. However, comprehensive assessments of its burden in this demographic remain limited.

Methods

Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were analyzed, covering 204 countries from 1990 to 2021. Incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were examined, with results stratified by sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. Trend, decomposition, and inequality analyses were conducted, and future projections for 2022–2050 were generated using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.

Results

In 2021, NAFLD affected 48.31 million incident and 1.27 billion prevalent cases, causing 97,403 deaths and 2.67 million DALYs among adults aged 20–49. Both incidence and prevalence rose globally, with higher rates in males and the largest rises in middle-SDI countries, especially in Latin America and the Middle East. Forecasting models predict continued growth, especially among females, with a projected 60% increase in prevalence by 2050. Decomposition analysis showed that population growth was the primary driver, especially in middle and low-middle SDI regions, while epidemiological factors contributed more in high-SDI regions. Health inequality assessments revealed widening disparities, with the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) increasing, highlighting a greater burden in low-SDI countries.

Conclusion

NAFLD imposes a rising burden on adults aged 20-49 years globally, exacerbated by demographic shifts and socioeconomic disparities. Targeted interventions addressing obesity, metabolic health, and healthcare access are urgently required to mitigate this growing public health challenge.