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Objective <p>This study aimed to identify independent predictors of recurrence after catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) and develop a nomogram for individualized risk assessment.</p> Methods <p>Data from 516 AF patients undergoing first-time radiofrequency ablation between July 2020 and May 2025 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression identified independent risk factors, with restricted cubic spline (RCS) analyzing dose-response relationships for continuous variables. Patients were divided into training and validation sets (7:3 ratio) via stratified random sampling. The nomogram was evaluated using the C-statistic, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) for discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.</p> Results <p>The nomogram incorporated left atrial diameter (LAD), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), type of AF, D-dimer (DD), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). It demonstrated a C-index of 0.731. Calibration curves indicated strong agreement between predicted and observed outcomes, and DCA confirmed clinical net benefit within a 10%–50% threshold probability range.</p> Conclusion <p>The nomogram provides accurate, individualized prediction of one-year post-ablation AF recurrence risk, facilitating early identification of high-risk patients and offering valuable prognostic insight.</p>

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Development and validation of a nomogram model based on inflammatory markers and cardiac parameters: predicting the risk of recurrence in patients with atrial fibrillation after radiofrequency catheter ablation

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月13日

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  • Jiaming Meng,
  • Tiantian Zhang,
  • Liubing Zhu,
  • Sutong Li,
  • Linli Zhang,
  • Liu Miao,
  • Yanli Liu

摘要

Objective

This study aimed to identify independent predictors of recurrence after catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) and develop a nomogram for individualized risk assessment.

Methods

Data from 516 AF patients undergoing first-time radiofrequency ablation between July 2020 and May 2025 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression identified independent risk factors, with restricted cubic spline (RCS) analyzing dose-response relationships for continuous variables. Patients were divided into training and validation sets (7:3 ratio) via stratified random sampling. The nomogram was evaluated using the C-statistic, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) for discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

Results

The nomogram incorporated left atrial diameter (LAD), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), type of AF, D-dimer (DD), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). It demonstrated a C-index of 0.731. Calibration curves indicated strong agreement between predicted and observed outcomes, and DCA confirmed clinical net benefit within a 10%–50% threshold probability range.

Conclusion

The nomogram provides accurate, individualized prediction of one-year post-ablation AF recurrence risk, facilitating early identification of high-risk patients and offering valuable prognostic insight.