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Objective <p>To investigate the effect of temperature variability on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and to provide a scientific basis for disease prevention and control strategies.</p> Methods <p>Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for temperature-related IHD were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of the ASMRs. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were used to analyze independent age, period and cohort effects. Bayesian APC model was used to project ASMRs into the next 30 years.</p> Results <p>From 1990 to 2021, ASMR of IHD related to low temperature decreased with time. However, ASMR related to high temperature demonstrated a gradual increase, though was still lower than ASMR related to low temperature. ASMR was higher in males than in females. Age, period and cohort effects were dominant in the risk of death related to temperature. Low temperature associated ASMR was higher in high and high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, but declined more rapidly than other SDI regions over time. Except for high SDI regions, high temperatures in other regions tended to increase ASMR. Pakistan, Montenegro and Lesotho were the countries with the largest increases in ASMR related to low temperatures. The largest increases in ASMR related to high temperatures were observed in Egypt, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Projections indicated that the risk of high temperature-induced mortality would continue to increase over time.</p> Conclusions <p>IHD deaths associated with temperature variability are heterogeneous, with low temperature leading to a decreased risk of death and high temperature being a significant factor contributing to the continued increase in mortality risk.</p>

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The mortality of ischemic heart disease attributable to temperature variability: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月29日

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  • Anheng Liu,
  • Jiaman Lin,
  • Hongyu Ma,
  • Qiang Wang

摘要

Objective

To investigate the effect of temperature variability on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and to provide a scientific basis for disease prevention and control strategies.

Methods

Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for temperature-related IHD were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of the ASMRs. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were used to analyze independent age, period and cohort effects. Bayesian APC model was used to project ASMRs into the next 30 years.

Results

From 1990 to 2021, ASMR of IHD related to low temperature decreased with time. However, ASMR related to high temperature demonstrated a gradual increase, though was still lower than ASMR related to low temperature. ASMR was higher in males than in females. Age, period and cohort effects were dominant in the risk of death related to temperature. Low temperature associated ASMR was higher in high and high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, but declined more rapidly than other SDI regions over time. Except for high SDI regions, high temperatures in other regions tended to increase ASMR. Pakistan, Montenegro and Lesotho were the countries with the largest increases in ASMR related to low temperatures. The largest increases in ASMR related to high temperatures were observed in Egypt, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Projections indicated that the risk of high temperature-induced mortality would continue to increase over time.

Conclusions

IHD deaths associated with temperature variability are heterogeneous, with low temperature leading to a decreased risk of death and high temperature being a significant factor contributing to the continued increase in mortality risk.