<p>Leaf water status is a key indicator for irrigation scheduling and early stress detection, but many spectroscopic prediction studies have mainly relied on near-infrared features. Here, practical prediction models were developed using mid-infrared (MIR) ATR-FTIR spectra of capsicum (Capsicum annuum L.) leaves collected under glasshouse conditions during a 10-day gradual dehydration period, alongside an irrigated control. Spectra (4000–450 cm⁻1) were measured with minimal sample preparation, and leaf water traits were quantified using fuel moisture content (FMC), equivalent water thickness (EWT), and specific leaf weight (SLW). Water-related MIR bands at 3370 and 1641 cm⁻1 showed the most consistent response to dehydration, and simple band ratios generally provided stronger predictions than single bands. The best ratios were A1641/A2159 for FMC (R2 = 0.81; RMSE = 12.80) and A3370/A2849 for EWT (R2 = 0.72; RMSE = 0.0034) and SLW (R2 = 0.62; RMSE = 6.95 × 10⁻4), while predicted-versus-measured performance yielded R2 values of 0.72 for FMC, 0.68 for EWT, and 0.52 for SLW. These results indicate that MIR ATR-FTIR spectroscopy, when coupled with selected band ratios, can provide a rapid, low-preparation laboratory-based approach for estimating capsicum leaf water traits under controlled dehydration, supporting plant-based water stress assessment under controlled conditions and providing a basis for further irrigation-related sensing studies. However, the models are preliminary and require validation with larger independent datasets and tightly standardised measurement conditions before operational use in irrigation management.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>