Abstract <p>Sustainable development and reduction of the carbon footprint of production activities is an important issue on the agenda of development of Russia’s national economy and, in particular, the agricultural sector. The study of long-term trajectories of agricultural economic development and conditions for achieving carbon neutrality should take into account the expected climate and socioeconomic changes in the world, which are enshrined in a number of widely used scenarios—Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and, as a rule, are based on the use of integrated multi-sector models of land use dynamics. The study focuses on obtaining projections of climate change and scenarios SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 on the dynamics of crop production in Russia until 2050 with an emphasis on the development of a large agricultural region of Siberia−Altai krai in the context of analyzing the timing and conditions for achieving carbon neutrality. The GL-OBIOM model, adapted for modeling at the level of Russian regions, was used as a tool. The results of scenario modeling made it possible to assess the change in the scale of production and structure of crop areas when implementing the specified scenarios, greenhouse gas emissions in carbon units and the overall dynamics of the carbon footprint, possible consequences for the Russian economy and prospective assessments of the potential for export of crop products. It has been revealed that achieving carbon neutrality in Altai krai is a challenge that requires significant changes in the structure of crop areas, the introduction of environmentally friendly technologies, and a significant increase in the productivity of agricultural land. The results contribute to a deeper understanding of regional economic management processes using the example of Altai krai and ways to achieve sustainable development goals, in particular achieving carbon neutrality in crop production. The practice of such research can be extended to other Russian regions.</p>