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Abstract <p><i>Mnemiopsis leidyi</i> is one of the “ecosystem engineers” and is the most dangerous global invader for marine ecosystems. In this study, we used correlative and mechanistic ecological modeling approaches to predict potentially suitable areas for the global distribution of this species under current climate conditions and to construct detailed seasonal maps of suitable habitat in the Caspian Sea as a case study under climate change throughout the 21st century. By using a global pool of species occurrence records and marine environmental variables from the Bio-Oracle databases, we showed that the hypothesis of realized niches conservatism (similarity) in the native and invasive parts of the range cannot be rejected. The created global map confirmed that suitable habitats for <i>M. leidyi</i> are located along the eastern coasts of the American continents and in the seas of Eurasia, where the species has already become naturalized, and also identified areas potentially favorable for its establishment, but where it has not yet been recorded. Seasonal (December–March, April–June, July–September, October–November) predictions of suitable habitats in the Caspian Sea for maximum and minimum reproduction and survival of the species under current climate conditions (2010–2020) and for two periods (2040–2050, 2090–2100) under four climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) showed that, while the main direction of interseasonal dispersal under the current climate is from south to north, under the strongest warming scenario (SSP5-8.5), this direction is projected to reverse—from north to south—during summer and autumn by the end of the 21st century. The results also indicated that global warming, regardless of the climate change scenario, would not lead to extinction of the species in the Caspian Sea.</p>

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Spatial Distribution Models of the Ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi A. Agassiz 1865 in the Caspian Sea under Current and Future Climate Conditions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月1日

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  • V. G. Petrosyan,
  • G. I. Ruban,
  • V. V. Barabanov,
  • N. N. Dergunova,
  • F. A. Osipov

摘要

Abstract

Mnemiopsis leidyi is one of the “ecosystem engineers” and is the most dangerous global invader for marine ecosystems. In this study, we used correlative and mechanistic ecological modeling approaches to predict potentially suitable areas for the global distribution of this species under current climate conditions and to construct detailed seasonal maps of suitable habitat in the Caspian Sea as a case study under climate change throughout the 21st century. By using a global pool of species occurrence records and marine environmental variables from the Bio-Oracle databases, we showed that the hypothesis of realized niches conservatism (similarity) in the native and invasive parts of the range cannot be rejected. The created global map confirmed that suitable habitats for M. leidyi are located along the eastern coasts of the American continents and in the seas of Eurasia, where the species has already become naturalized, and also identified areas potentially favorable for its establishment, but where it has not yet been recorded. Seasonal (December–March, April–June, July–September, October–November) predictions of suitable habitats in the Caspian Sea for maximum and minimum reproduction and survival of the species under current climate conditions (2010–2020) and for two periods (2040–2050, 2090–2100) under four climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) showed that, while the main direction of interseasonal dispersal under the current climate is from south to north, under the strongest warming scenario (SSP5-8.5), this direction is projected to reverse—from north to south—during summer and autumn by the end of the 21st century. The results also indicated that global warming, regardless of the climate change scenario, would not lead to extinction of the species in the Caspian Sea.