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Abstract <p>Based on the results of a computer modeling of the distribution of the Altai-Sayan endemic species <i>Euphorbia</i> <i>pilosa</i> L. (Euphorbiaceae) in Western Siberia, where the main part of its range is located, areas of accumulation of species registration points (RPs) have been identified that largely coincide with the climatic optima of the forecast model. A set of variables with a high contribution to the forecast model is established, including the long-term average monthly precipitation in August (14.1%), the amount of precipitation in October (13.4%), and the seasonality of surface air temperature (11.4%) and the long-term average monthly precipitation in May (10.7%). The contribution of climatic variables characterizing the amount of precipitation significantly (more than twice) exceeds the contribution of climatic variables characterizing surface air temperature. In contrast, the total contribution of bioclimatic indicators is noticeably (more than 1.5 times) higher for air temperature indicators than for precipitation indicators (18.7% versus 8.6%). According to the forecast model, one of the well-defined climatic optimums is located at the northern limit of the species distribution in Western Siberia, in the vicinity of Tomsk. To identify the ecological features of the range within the Tomsk climatic optimum, a model site characterized by the highest predicted values of the probability of the species presence is selected. Using the method of latitudinal and longitudinal bands, sites with a relatively high number of species RPs are identified, and sites with the most favorable climate are determined based on the values of the probability of the species presence indicator. The results are correlated with the possible impact of anthropogenic load within the boundaries of the Tomsk urban agglomeration, where deforestation in areas allocated for gardening associations and societies and the construction of linear suburban and suburban infrastructure facilities (highways, railways, etc.) lead to changes of the phytocenotic confinement of the species and fragmentation of parts of its range at the northern limit of distribution in Western Siberia.</p>

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Ecological Features of the Range of Euphorbia pilosa (Euphorbiaceae) at the Northern Limits of Distribution in Western Siberia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月1日

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  • K. S. Baikov,
  • E. V. Baikova

摘要

Abstract

Based on the results of a computer modeling of the distribution of the Altai-Sayan endemic species Euphorbia pilosa L. (Euphorbiaceae) in Western Siberia, where the main part of its range is located, areas of accumulation of species registration points (RPs) have been identified that largely coincide with the climatic optima of the forecast model. A set of variables with a high contribution to the forecast model is established, including the long-term average monthly precipitation in August (14.1%), the amount of precipitation in October (13.4%), and the seasonality of surface air temperature (11.4%) and the long-term average monthly precipitation in May (10.7%). The contribution of climatic variables characterizing the amount of precipitation significantly (more than twice) exceeds the contribution of climatic variables characterizing surface air temperature. In contrast, the total contribution of bioclimatic indicators is noticeably (more than 1.5 times) higher for air temperature indicators than for precipitation indicators (18.7% versus 8.6%). According to the forecast model, one of the well-defined climatic optimums is located at the northern limit of the species distribution in Western Siberia, in the vicinity of Tomsk. To identify the ecological features of the range within the Tomsk climatic optimum, a model site characterized by the highest predicted values of the probability of the species presence is selected. Using the method of latitudinal and longitudinal bands, sites with a relatively high number of species RPs are identified, and sites with the most favorable climate are determined based on the values of the probability of the species presence indicator. The results are correlated with the possible impact of anthropogenic load within the boundaries of the Tomsk urban agglomeration, where deforestation in areas allocated for gardening associations and societies and the construction of linear suburban and suburban infrastructure facilities (highways, railways, etc.) lead to changes of the phytocenotic confinement of the species and fragmentation of parts of its range at the northern limit of distribution in Western Siberia.