Global Disaster Risk Index for Analyzing Multiple Risks in the Earth’s Changing Climate
摘要
The relevance and necessity of a global approach to natural disaster risk assessment are determined. In recent years, this has become increasingly obvious to society, scientists, management structures, businesses, and politicians. It has been shown that various dangerous natural (earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, and floods) and anthropogenic (industrial accidents, pollution and degradation of landscapes, and depletion of natural resources) processes constantly threaten millions of people around the world. These processes differ greatly, but the assets exposed to their impact are basically the same: population, economy, territories, ecosystems, infrastructure, and the environment. It is concluded that the results of the impact on them should be considered as a dynamic process, examples of which are rapid urbanization, rural depopulation, changes associated with the actual evolution of settlements themselves, declining quality of life, etc. In this aspect, the main task for researchers is to find innovative, simple, and effective methods for collecting, organizing, storing, and transmitting data on such impacts, taking into account their inherent spatiotemporal dynamics. The objective of this article is to analyze the challenges of implementing an impact model on a global scale suitable for various natural hazards (NHs) within a dynamic and scalable framework based on the method of estimating the global risk index for countries of the world. A roadmap is being developed for the use of the global impact model that will continually evolve over time through input and updating of data, including consideration of uncertainties. It is established that such a model will form the basis for a global assessment of vulnerability and risks from natural disasters, providing reliable standardized information on assets and entities exposed to various NHs.