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<b>Abstract</b>— <p>The article explores the possibilities of increasing the number of specialists in information and communication technologies (ICT) in Russia, taking into account the constraints on the labor supply. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of enrollments in universities for ICT specialties in recent years, further growth in the output of such specialists is forecast, which forms the minimum level of labor supply described by a inertial scenario. In the scenario of accelerated growth, a prerequisite is introduced for a high rate of influx of ICT specialists, which makes it possible to estimate the upper limit for the labor supply of highly qualified ICT specialists. The results of the study determine the possible limits for the growth in the number of highly qualified ICT specialists in Russia until 2030, due to current and projected labor supply factors.</p>

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Forecast of the Labor Supply of Highly Qualified ICT Specialists in Russia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月7日

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  • V. G. Artemenko

摘要

Abstract—

The article explores the possibilities of increasing the number of specialists in information and communication technologies (ICT) in Russia, taking into account the constraints on the labor supply. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of enrollments in universities for ICT specialties in recent years, further growth in the output of such specialists is forecast, which forms the minimum level of labor supply described by a inertial scenario. In the scenario of accelerated growth, a prerequisite is introduced for a high rate of influx of ICT specialists, which makes it possible to estimate the upper limit for the labor supply of highly qualified ICT specialists. The results of the study determine the possible limits for the growth in the number of highly qualified ICT specialists in Russia until 2030, due to current and projected labor supply factors.