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Abstract <p>The development of methods and models for forecasting economic performance and their diversity in applied economic forecasting often make it somewhat difficult to interpret forecast estimates of the same indicators obtained by various toolkits. This article describes the role of short-term forecasting in the system of models for RF national economic forecasting developed at the IEF RAS. Based on the analysis of international and Russian experience in short-term forecasting of macroeconomic indicators, as well as of the accuracy provided by IEF RAS short-term forecasts, the possibilities and limitations of using short-term GDP forecasting based on the extrapolation of high-frequency time series are demonstrated. Comparison of the accuracy of the IEF RAS short-term forecast with the consensus forecasts of the Institute “Development Center” of HSE University and the Bank of Russia shows high predictive abilities (up to a year ahead) of small-size GDP forecasting models based on bridge equations and extrapolation of high-frequency time series.</p>

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Results for Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Dynamics Based on Bridge Equations and Time Series Extrapolation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月1日

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  • M. S. Gusev,
  • V. S. Ustinov,
  • R. E. Rakoch

摘要

Abstract

The development of methods and models for forecasting economic performance and their diversity in applied economic forecasting often make it somewhat difficult to interpret forecast estimates of the same indicators obtained by various toolkits. This article describes the role of short-term forecasting in the system of models for RF national economic forecasting developed at the IEF RAS. Based on the analysis of international and Russian experience in short-term forecasting of macroeconomic indicators, as well as of the accuracy provided by IEF RAS short-term forecasts, the possibilities and limitations of using short-term GDP forecasting based on the extrapolation of high-frequency time series are demonstrated. Comparison of the accuracy of the IEF RAS short-term forecast with the consensus forecasts of the Institute “Development Center” of HSE University and the Bank of Russia shows high predictive abilities (up to a year ahead) of small-size GDP forecasting models based on bridge equations and extrapolation of high-frequency time series.